Braves vs. Padres Prediction, Odds and Props: Take Underdog Atlanta
In the opener of a National League series on Monday night, the San Diego Padres host the Atlanta Braves.
FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Padres as the slight moneyline favorites in Game 1 of this series at -110, with a total of 7.5 expected runs.
Check out our Braves vs. Padres prediction, betting odds analysis, and player prop picks before joining the action.
Braves vs. Padres odds
| Moneyline | Total (Over/Under) | Run Line |
| Braves (-106) | Over 7.5 runs (-102) | Braves -1.5 runs (+158) |
| Padres (-110) | Under 7.5 runs (-120) | Padres +1.5 runs (-192) |
The Braves (48-28) failed to finish off the sweep in their last series with a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. While they have lost seven of their last 10 games, they still have the second-most wins in the National League and are sitting atop the NL East, 6.5 games clear of the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Padres (39-37) have lost two of their last three games and are 5-5 in their last 10 games. They're in second place in the NL West, but the Padres remain nine games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Braves vs. Padres betting analysis
On the season, the Padres are 19-19 at home, and the Braves are 24-14 on the road.
By the numbers
Braves
- Runs – 7th
- Team ERA – 2nd
Padres
- Runs – Tied for 29th
- Team ERA – 9th
Pitching Matchup
Grant Holmes (4-3, 4.33 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) takes the hill for the Braves, and in his last start, he only lasted two innings, giving up three runs on four hits in a 7-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants. After winning two in a row with Holmes on the hill, Atlanta has lost his last two starts, in which he's given up six runs in only 5 2/3 innings.
Michael King (4-6, 3.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) gets the nod for the Padres after giving up three runs on five hits in 4 1/3 innings in a 3-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. San Diego has lost four of its last five starts, and King surrendered six runs in his last two starts after giving up nine in the two before that.
Braves slumping at the dish
The Braves had been in the top five in runs for most of the season, but now rank seventh after slumping at the dish as of late. In their last 10 games, they have scored more than four runs only twice, and in that span, they are averaging 3.2 runs per game.
Olson on a cold streak as well
Matt Olson (.271, 20 home runs, 51 RBIs) leads the Braves in home runs and runs driven in, but he hasn't homered or recorded an RBI over the last six games.
Runs help
The Padres’ lineup has been up and down as of late, but for the season, they rank tied for second-to-last in baseball in runs scored.
Manny Machado (.179, 13 home runs, 41 RBIs) leads the club in long balls and RBIs, but he's batting well under the Mendoza line.
Top guys are not getting on base
It is not surprising that the Padres are struggling to score runs. While Fernando Tatis Jr. (.285, 2 home runs, 26 RBIs) leads the team in batting average and at-bats, none of the next four players with the most at-bats are hitting over .230.
Tatis only has two home runs while averaging 25 home runs in the first six seasons of his career.
PlayersBest pick: Braves moneyline (-106)
Neither team has been playing well in recent days. While the Braves are struggling to score runs, we look for their lineup to get it done in this opener and get the win in sunny San Diego.
Braves vs. Padres player prop picks
Here are some player prop bets we like for this matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Grant Holmes to give up 4.5+ hits (-138) – Holmes has allowed four hits in each of his last two starts, but only lasted 5 2/3 total innings. We expect a longer outing from him tonight.
- Michael King to give up 4.5+ hits (-140) – King has given up at least five hits in each of his last five starts.
- Matt Olson to hit a home run (+399) – Even though Olson is in a slump, he still ranks tied for sixth in MLB home runs, and King has given up four home runs in his last three starts.
