Turkey Stun USA to Hand Prediction Market Traders Big Wins, Huge Losses
We know prediction market traders love swings, and the 2026 World Cup is certainly springing plenty of those.
Turkey backers were celebrating buying the ‘Yes’ at $0.34 on their team beating the United States in Los Angeles.
Turkey duly repaid their faith with a last-gasp 3-2 win.
While traders buying the Turkey win celebrated, one customer on Polymarket was left nursing a big loss. The anonymous trader purchased $1.3 million in contracts on the USA to win, but ultimately left empty-handed.
At a Glance:
- Two traders lose a combined $2 million backing USA vs. Turkey
- Turkey beat the U.S. in their final Group D game
- Kaan Ayhan scored a 98th-minute goal to secure the win
- Turkey went into the World Cup game a 34% underdog, the U.S. 42% to win
- USA finished atop Group D and face Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 32
Millions won and lost on a single kick
The United States had a superb start to the FIFA World Cup, winning their first two game against Australia and Paraguay.
On the flip side, Turkey lost their opening games, contributing to one of their worst World Cup records.
However, in the 98th minute, Turkey scored to win the game — and secure a very lucrative profit for lucky prediction market traders.
For one unlucky trader on the prediction markets, however, it resulted in a $1.3 million loss on a single match.
The victory left Turkey in last place in Group D as celebrations were cut short. Paraguay and Australia played out a drab final game, ensuring both went through to the knockout stages.
How World Cup match prediction markets work
Unlike online sportsbooks, prediction markets let their customers set the prices. You buy and sell contracts on which side will win a game, or if the match ends in a draw.
For the USA vs. Turkey match, an American win was trading at an implied probability of 42%. A Turkey win was 34%, marking the team out as the underdog.
Therefore, you could buy a share in Turkey at $0.34, with all shares resolving at $1.00. You would have won $0.66 per share following the Crescent-Stars.
You also have the option to bet on a team not to win. By backing the ‘No’ trade, you are purchasing contracts on any other result other than a team win.
A second player loses nearly $800,000 trading the wrong way
A second unlucky trader lost nearly $800,000 betting on the USA at Polymarket at $0.52. The $799,850 risk would have paid dividends of over $1.5 million if the result had come in.
The trade illustrated one of the key rules of playing the prediction markets: doing your research.
How team research can help your trade picks
With top place in Group D secured, the USA didn’t have to win the game or even draw it. USA coach Mauricio Pochettino rested several players, including Tyler Adams and Chris Richards.
Turkey, meanwhile, fielded a full-strength team as they attempted to restore some pride for their soccer-crazy fans. The Turkish side included players like Arda Guler, despite him being on a yellow card. However, with a place in the Last 32 at stake, risking suspension was the key play.
2026 World Cup set to smash records for prediction market trades
The World Cup is already bringing in staggering levels of trades on the major prediction markets. As the group phase came to a close, the FIFA World Cup winner market had attracted over $580 million in trade volume alone.
The France vs. Norway game recorded over $16 million in trades on Kalshi just hours before kickoff. That’s a staggering amount for a single group game with no effect on the outright tournament winner.
The World Cup is sure to break existing records for prediction market volume. Polymarket announced annualized revenues of over $1 billion this week, thanks to the World Cup and bigger U.S. access. Its volume has increased from $50 million per day last month to $200 million per day now.
Plus, Kalshi announced a $22 billion valuation following a $1 billion fundraising round. Despite various legal challenges and Supreme Court rulings ahead, expect more big wins — and losses — before the World Cup final on July 19.
