Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds and Props: New York Takes Opener
In the first game after the All-Star break and the lone contest on Thursday, the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets.
In this Mets vs. Phillies prediction, savvy bettors can find information on the pitching matchup, an odds analysis, betting insights, and a few value player prop bets.
BetMGM Sportsbook has the Phillies as the favorites at -130 with a total of 9.5 runs.
Mets vs. Phillies odds
| Moneyline | Total (Over/Under) | Run Line |
| Mets (+110) | Over 9.5 runs (-110) | Mets +1.5 runs (-175) |
| Phillies (-130) | Under 9.5 runs (-110) | Phillies -1.5 runs (+150) |
How we got here
The Mets (40-57) have been one of the biggest disappointments so far this season, and they're in the basement of the National League East, 16 games out of first place.
Despite finishing 5-5 in the last 10 games before the break, the Phillies (54-43) have played well over the last month. With the first-place Atlanta Braves slumping in recent weeks, Philly is now only two games back in the NL East race.
Mets vs. Phillies betting analysis
On the season, the Phillies are 25-21 at home, and the Mets are 19-29 on the road.
By the numbers
Mets
- Runs – 23rd
- Team ERA – 18th
Phillies
- Runs – 17th
- Team ERA – 16th
Pitching Matchup
Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) takes the hill for New York. He was solid in his last outing, not giving up any runs in five innings of a 6-2 win over the Kansas City Royals. The Mets have won five of his last six starts, including one facing the Phillies in the Big Apple, where he gave up two runs in 4 1/3 innings.
Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) gets the nod for the Phillies, and in his last start, he gave up two runs in five innings, but the bullpen blew up in a 10-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers. Nola has lost four of his last five starts, including his last three.
Two for three, twice
These teams have played two series this season, with the Phillies taking two of three games in each.
The long ball helps
The Phillies have hit the seventh most home runs this season, and Kyle Schwarber (.254, 32 home runs, 59 RBIs) leads the Majors in dingers. Scott has given up six home runs in his last four starts, but none in his last one, and the New York bullpen has given up 53 long balls.
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One up and one down
Juan Soto (.290, 21 home runs, 51 RBIs) and Bo Bichette (.255, 10 home runs, 51 RBIs) lead the Mets in RBIs. While Soto has 12 RBIs in 12 games this month, Bichette is listed as day-to-day and has driven in just one run over the last six games.
Not the same Nola
After three seasons with double-digit wins, Nola recorded just five wins last season. He had an ERA north of 6.00, and he has three wins with a 5.75 ERA in 2026.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction: Mets moneyline (+110)
While the Mets have been bad and the Phillies have been good, New York still has good value. Christian Scott has been one of the bright spots while Aaron Nola has struggled, and the Phillies have lost eight of his last 10 starts against the Mets.
Take New York in this one with solid underdog value.
Player prop picks
Here are some player prop bets we like at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+268) – Harper has 20 home runs this season and took Mets’ starter Scott deep the last time these teams met.
- Aaron Nola 6+ strikeouts (+121) – Nola has 15 strikeouts in his last two starts and fanned six in a recent outing against the Mets.
