Guardians vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, and Props: Cincy’s Ace Helps Take Opener
In the opener of an interleague series on Monday night in an ESPN game, the Cincinnati Reds host the Cleveland Guardians.
In this Guardians vs. Reds prediction, we will not only give you the pick for the game but also the key stats, pitching matchup, odds, and value player props.
Caesars Sportsbook has the Reds as the pretty big favorite, posted at -175 with a total of 8.5 runs.
Guardians vs. Reds Prediction Odds
| Moneyline | Total (Over/Under) | Run Line |
| Guardians (+155) | Over 8.5 runs (-110) | Guardians +1.5 runs (-143) |
| Reds (-175) | Under 8.5 runs (-110) | Reds -1.5 runs (+120) |
At the best US sportsbooks you will find many more team and player prop bets for this game.
How we got here
The Guardians (54-53) are coming off being swept in a three-game series, and they have lost five in a row. They are in second place in the AL Central, only 2.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox.
The Reds (49-55) are hot as of late, winning four of their last five games but still are in the basement of the NL Central, 16.5 games out of first place.
Guardians vs. Reds betting analysis
On the season, the Reds are 22-28 at home, and the Guardians are 27-27 on the road.
By the numbers
Guardians
- Runs – Tied for 28th
- Team ERA – 8th
Reds
- Runs – 26th
- Team ERA – 23rd
Pitching Matchup
Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) gets the nod for Game 1, and he gave up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last start in a 10-6 loss to the Minnesota Twins. Cleveland has lost his last five road starts, and after pitching well in June, with an ERA of 1.88 in six starts, he has an ERA of 7.43 in three starts this month, when he missed a couple of weeks due to injury.
Cincy sends their ace, Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), to the mound and is coming off a solid last outing, tossing five scoreless innings in a 4-2 win over the Seattle Mariners. The Reds have won his last seven starts, and he ranks tied for second in the Majors in wins and fourth in ERA.
Bad showing by Guardians in Sunshine State
The Guardians were on the road in their last series, getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays, where they scored three runs in the opener and were shut out in the last two games.
Cleveland is having issues at the dish
Cleveland only ranks tied for 28th in runs scored and has only totaled 10 runs in their five-game skid, with six of them coming in the first loss. In their last game, they lost 1-0 and had only one hit.
Chase DeLauter (.282, 11 home runs, 50 RBIs) leads the club in batting average and RBIs, and after a good stretch of games, he has no RBIs over the last five games. Brayan Rocchio (.268, 9 home runs, 49 RBIs) is the only other player with more than 35 RBIs, and he has three over the last six games.
Reds getting it done on the mound
While they have not been lighting up the scoreboard, the pitching for the Reds has been solid as of late. In the four wins in their last five games, they did not give up more than three runs in any of them.
Leaders are leading the way for Cincy
Elly De La Cruz (.278, 18 home runs, 47 RBIs) leads Cincinnati in batting average, had a home run in yesterday’s 5-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, and has gone yard twice in the last five games, where he also has five stolen bases.
Sal Stewart (.253, 21 home runs, 76 RBIs) ranks third in baseball in RBIs and has five over the last five games.
Guardians vs. Reds Prediction: Reds run line -1.5 runs (+120)
While the moneyline at -170 for the Reds is a safer bet, we like value in the run line getting better odds. Cincy has won Chase Burns’ last seven starts, and in each one they won by at least two runs. He will have another strong outing facing a Guardians’ team that has been shut out in their last two games.
Player Prop Picks
Here are some player prop bets we like at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Slade Cecconi Over 4.5 strikeouts (-101) – While Cecconi is not a big strikeout pitcher, he had five in his last game, and Cincy, who ranks third to last in Ks per game, has struck out 25 times in the last two games.
- Elly De La Cruz (+348) or San Stewart (+395) to hit a home run – Good value for two players that lead the Reds in home runs, and Cecconi gave up two home runs in his last start.
