New Mexico Tribes Sue Kalshi for Offering Prediction Markets on Tribal Land
Four tribes in New Mexico are suing Kalshi for offering prediction markets on tribal land. The tribes are using a similar ruling to those in other states, citing a breach of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA).
At a Glance:
- Three NM pueblos and one tribe launch joint case
- Prediction markets amount to “sports gambling”, say tribes
- Tribal casinos “deprived of revenue” by prediction market platforms
- New Mexico tribes operate over 25 brick-and-mortar casinos and sportsbooks
- Kalshi subject of multiple cease-and-desist letters already in 2026
New Mexico tribes vs. Kalshi: how the case is playing out
New Mexico has more than 25 tribal casinos that offer a mix of casino games and sports betting. Sportsbooks are legal in New Mexico, but tightly controlled.
You can only place sports bets in person at a tribal casino. No online sports betting is permitted anywhere in New Mexico.
The big prediction markets like Kalshi operate under commodity futures trading laws and accept online business. Plus, it’s easier to trade in and out of event contracts via mobile phone anywhere in the Land of Enchantment.
However, several tribes argue that prediction markets are no different from sports betting and therefore must be regulated under tribal gaming law:
- Mescalero Apache Tribe
- Pueblo of Pojoaque
- Pueblo of Isleta
- Pueblo of Sandia
How Kalshi operates on a federal level
Kalshi obtained a CFTC license in 2020 as a “Contract Market”. It operates much like a financial institution under the Commodity Exchange Act, not an online bookmaker.
Instead of placing fixed-odds bets against a central betting site, prediction markets work like exchanges.
Users determine the price through their own expertise and research. You buy or sell contracts based on the price offered.
The difference between prediction markets and sportsbooks is the range of events offered. You can buy or sell event contracts on hundreds of world events. These range from sporting outcomes and political events to Oscar winners and the next U.S. president.
Tribes say prediction markets ‘diverts essential revenue away’
In a joint statement published this week, the tribes argued that the use of prediction markets “diverts essential revenue away from our governments, provides an end-run around regulation of gaming on our lands, and allows gaming by underage people.”
The legal age for betting at New Mexico’s tribal casinos is 21. However, you can trade on Kalshi from as young as 18 in the United States.
The tribes have been pressuring state lawmakers to take action since 2025. The Mescalero Apache Tribe argued that platforms like Kalshi were invading states where online sports betting is prohibited.
“This [prediction market trading] is a threat to the gaming market here in the state, and a clear violation of the state tribal gaming compacts,” Mescalero Apache Reservation Vice President, Duane Duffy, said last year.
Kalshi feels the pressure from all sides
Several states have been going after Kalshi this year. Ohio wants to regulate prediction markets with a new bill.
Meanwhile, even the American Gaming Association has weighed in, criticizing both the CFTC and prediction markets.
AGA president, Bill Miller, slammed the CFTC last month, saying:
“The head of the CFTC, quite frankly, is a joke. He somehow believes that what he’s doing is Uber, and that the rest of the country is the taxicab industry. That’s not the case.”
Kalshi hits $22 billion valuation
However, Kalshi has achieved a few wins this year. Earlier this month, Arizona failed in its criminal case against Kalshi. The CFTC had counter-sued, arguing that it alone has jurisdiction over prediction markets, not individual states.
And following another round of investment, Kalshi is now valued at $22 billion, making it one of the biggest gambling brands in the U.S.
The battles between tribes and online platforms will continue, at least until the winter. The Supreme Court is likely to rule on whether prediction markets are commodity exchanges or are no different from sports betting.
Only then will under-pressure tribes and regulated sportsbooks find out whether they can cash in their betslips.
