Who Will Be the Next James Bond? Prediction Market Picks to Lead Franchise
007 is coming back to the big screen, but who will be the next James Bond? Prediction markets have been left shaken and stirred after reports surfaced that casting has started.
Early frontrunners like Callum Turner are still popular with traders on Kalshi and Polymarket. But how does the showbiz media buzz affect markets for value picks like Tom Francis?
At a Glance:
- Callum Turner is still the heavy favorite at 49%
- Aussie star Jacob Elordi would have a lot of backers
- Variety reports that Tom Francis has auditioned. The top value choice?
How the next James Bond casting contracts work at prediction markets
You can buy shares on the prediction markets on whether you think an actor will (or won’t) be cast as James Bond.
For example, a trader on Kalshi is offering a share in Callum Turner at $0.49. To back ‘Yes,’ you buy as many shares as you want (and that are available). All shares on the next James Bond prediction markets settle at $1. Therefore, you’d win $0.51 in profit for every share you buy at that price.
You can also buy the ‘No’ contract. Callum Turner is $0.52 to not become the next James Bond. Effectively, you can trade the other way and still be right.
Prediction markets run hundreds of weird and wacky contracts throughout the year. You can trade on the winner of the FIFA World Cup, entertainment award winners, if President Trump will be impeached, and much more.
Who will be James Bond next?
Below are some of the big names currently featured in the James Bond casting contracts. Unlike traditional online sportsbooks, you can buy now and sell your position later.
Callum Turner: ‘Yes’ @ $0.49
The "Fantastic Beasts" star is in his 30s (a good sign of a 007 hopeful) and is currently in the showbiz news as Dua Lipa’s boyfriend. However, as a 50/50 play, there may be better value to find.
Jacob Elordi: ‘Yes’ @ $0.21
The Aussie actor has become a huge star in recent years, thanks to films like "Wuthering Heights" and "Saltburn". Elordi would be the first Antipodean since George Lazenby to bag the 007 crown. Since hitting a high of 48% in February, he’s since dropped back to 21%. He's an interesting value play.
Tom Francis: ‘Yes’ @ $0.16
Variety reported that stage star Tom Francis has auditioned for the role of 007. The actor is best known for appearing in "Sunset Boulevard" on stage with Nicole Scherzinger.
Though Francis is relatively unknown outside stage performances, he’s picked up plenty of industry accolades.
Plus, simply being auditioned means he has traders on his side. The $0.16 represents value — you can sell later if the price jumps even more.
Next James Bond prediction markets: Trading tips
Here are some quick tips to navigate your way through the 007 prediction minefield:
1) Follow the showbiz buzz
Follow Variety’s X account to track auditions. Even a whisper of an audition can send the prices haywire.
2) Cash out early
The next James Bond prediction market won’t be settled until 2030. That’s a long time to wait for your winnings. Consider buying early and cashing out when you want to lock in a profit before the announcement.
3) Amazon MGM is doing things differently
Amazon MGM Studios took over the Bond franchise in 2025. They are bringing out the big guns, with Denis Villeneuve directing and Steven Knight writing. They may go for a massive name as 007, but there’s every chance they’ll do things differently. Don’t dismiss a non-British star getting the role.
Next James Bond prediction: Watch prices before locking in a trade
It’s been five years since Daniel Craig last portrayed 007 on screen. Bond fans have been left waiting and wondering about who will be brandishing the Walther PPK next.
Keep an eye on the audition buzz this year and follow the prediction markets carefully to track price swings.
