Google Employee Charged in Prediction Markets Scandal
A Google employee used insider knowledge to profit on prediction markets, the U.S. Department of Justice alleges.
Michele Spagnuolo, 36, made $1.2 million betting on the popular ‘Google’s Most-Searched’ event for 2025. The case has thrown open the ability of insider traders to exploit the markets and make huge profits.
At a Glance:
- Google employee used inside knowledge of market data to make money
- He tracked Google search data on musician D4vd, arrested for murder last year
- DOJ alleges Spagnuolo also used secret data to back Kendrick Lamar
- New York attorney promises to pursue other inside traders
D4vd and Kendrick Lamar make millions for alleged insider
The specific market that Spagnuolo is alleged to have bet on was the popular ‘Google’s Most-Searched’ list. Polymarket and Kalshi are among the prediction markets that offer this type of contract.
In 2025, musician D4vd topped Google’s most-searched list. The American singer was a YouTube sensation for years before he was arrested and charged with the murder of 14-year-old Celeste Hernandez in April.
It’s alleged that Spagnuolo used insider information unavailable to Polymarket traders to buy shares in D4vd, which topped the list. To make matters worse, D4vd was trading at around $0.01, inflating Spagnuolo’s alleged profits.
Additionally, Spagnuolo also bet that rapper Kendrick Lamar would be the most-searched-for celebrity of 2025. Though Lamar didn’t finish No. 1, his share price rose sufficiently for Spagnuolo to cash out and lock in a profit.
How Google’s most-searched market works
As a trader, you can buy shares in whether you think someone will or won’t be the most-searched person on Google this year. Other traders sell you shares and take the risk if they are wrong.
For example, you buy a share at $0.25 that Donald Trump will be the most-searched-for person on Google. The share matures at $1 if Trump claims the top spot. If that happens, you are paid $0.75 profit per share.
On the flipside, you can back a personality to not be the most-searched-for topic on Google for the year. Imagine Kendrick Lamar was priced at $0.62 to be the most-searched-for subject on Google. That means he would be $0.38 to not be the most-searched-for.
Insider dealing on prediction markets continues to hit headlines
2026 has been no stranger to tales of insider trading on the prediction markets. With so many event contracts available, it’s understandable that someone, somewhere, has a little insider knowledge.
Already this year, it has emerged that a U.S. soldier made hundreds of thousands of dollars betting that Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, would be ousted. The bet came just before the U.S. flew in and deposed the leader.
The way prediction sites offer contracts on events means someone always knows more than the market.
Similarly, anonymous Polymarket accounts have cleaned up this year on everything from the timing of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire to the death of the Ayatollah. So far, it hasn’t been proved that anyone in the Trump administration abused their insider knowledge to make a killing.
States and White House tussle over future of prediction markets
This month, following an explosive attack from Donald Trump on state regulators over predictions, governors hit back.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker responded to Trump’s personal attacks in the ongoing war over who regulates prediction markets:
“Illinois took action to prevent and ban insider trading with online prediction markets in our state,” Gov. Pritzker said in a statement. Illinois is currently in a battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over who should regulate prediction markets.
“The most corrupt president in our nation’s history wants to make sure states like ours can’t regulate prediction markets so his family and administration can keep profiting.”
