2028 US Presidential Election Winner: Rubio Leads Prediction Market Picks
The 2028 U.S. presidential election is two years away, but that hasn’t stopped prediction market traders from exploring options now.
The favorites have converged in recent months, with Donald Trump failing to endorse either of the main Republican candidates.
Though California Gov. Gavin Newsom seems a lock as the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris is exploring a return. There’s no guarantee either would find the path to the White House easy.
At a Glance:
- Marco Rubio, Gavin Newsom, and J.D. Vance share favoritism on the markets
- Is there space for a shock value pick on Kamala Harris or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
- Trump’s vague endorsement of the Republican frontrunners is leaving traders wary
How the 2028 US presidential election prediction market works
At prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can trade on political events, rather like buying shares. Traders offer shares to buy in a presidential nominee. You can either buy a ‘Yes’ (that the nominee wins) or a ‘No’ (a share in the nominee not winning).
All shares resolve at $1 after completion. Therefore, if you bought one share in Marco Rubio at $0.18, you’d win $0.82 in profit.
On the flip side, you could back ‘No’ on J.D. Vance at $0.85. You’d win just $0.15 if he didn’t win the election. That’s a feature that online sportsbooks don’t offer.
Market Rules: The prediction market on the 2028 U.S. presidential election resolves at ‘Yes’ once the winner starts their term in 2029.
2028 US presidential election frontrunners
With just over two years to go, let’s explore the leading contenders to succeed Trump as U.S. president.
Marco Rubio: ‘Yes’ @ $0.18
Marco Rubio is the clear frontrunner to not only secure the Republican nomination, but also the White House.
In fact, the Florida representative wasn’t even in the running to be the Republicans’ choice a month ago. He was trading at just $0.04 before leaping to $0.32 at the end of May. That followed a decidedly lukewarm endorsement for J.D. Vance by the president.
The Secretary of State has been fully on board with Trump’s Iran campaign. He’s seen as the “everyman” who’s happy in any role. But does he have enough of his own voice to carry through to the voters?
Gavin Newsom: ‘Yes’ @ $0.15
The smooth-talking Newsom was trading as high as $0.37 in the Democratic presidential nominee race a few months ago.
His price has slumped a little since then, to around $0.22 now. However, only Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are anywhere near on the markets.
Realistically, Newsom is the Democrats’ best chance of defeating the Republicans in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. He polls well, and he’s taking Trump head-on from his California base.
Newsom has the California economy on his side. It’s done well under the current governor, and as someone once said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
J.D. Vance: ‘Yes’ @ $0.15
The vice-president was the clear favorite for the 2028 U.S. presidential election six months ago. But that was before his boss delivered one of the worst endorsements for his VP.
Trump hinted to the Press Corps that Rubio and Vance would be a “dream team.” That was deemed to be a coded message for “Rubio in, Vance out.”
Vance has been vocal (to varying degrees) on the sense of going to war in Iran. He could come out the big winner if Trump performs a humiliating U-turn. That’s a big ‘if,’ though.
