Head of Casino Operations
The betting universe is really big. It’s absolutely massive. There’s so much of it that when we try to think of just how enormous it really is, it starts to make us astronauts scratch our helmets with wonder and awe.
Why? Partly it’s the amount of different betting markets out there. Not only can you bet on your favourite sports, but you can bet on events surrounding them too. And there’s arguably no more of an exciting and impactful example than NFL draft betting? My mission? Simple: to help you craft a clear and cohesive betting on NFL draft strategy.
Well, cadets, you’ve chosen a most unusual but intriguing mission. Some of you will be on my crew for the first time; some of you may have been on several missions before. Regardless, this will be a new experience for both of you because NFL draft betting is different from the overwhelming majority of markets out there in cyberspace.
For those of you unaware, the NFL draft is where the league recruits players, with each team being able to make picks on their favourites, usually from the college football leagues. The order in which the teams pick is, therefore extremely, important, as there’s usually favourites that every team wants. To try and keep an even playing field, each team picks in reverse order based on their positions in the previous year. In other words, the worst performing teams get the advantage This is done to make the NFL more competitive.
The impact this has makes it one of the most important events for the sport not taking place on the field. And that interest and immense popularity means a huge amount of betting operators now provide NFL draft odds on a wide selection of markets.
That’s where I come in, cadets. My job is to train you up so you can approach these markets with the precision of a missile launch, and make the most out of this innovative way of betting. I’ll be going into the specifics of the strategies I think you should be paying most attention to shortly. But first, I think it’s important we get a base of knowledge to build on – and so I can say that all my crewmates are well equipped when I get back to mission control.
Of course, it can be pretty hard to conjure up a betting on NFL draft strategy without knowing exactly what you can bet on, even for experienced space pilots like me. Knowing the markets is a vital part of all our strategy sections, and it’s no different when we’re talking about something a little more left-field like the NFL draft. With that in mind, here’s five of NFL draft betting’s brightest stars.
There can be little doubt the market which gets the most coverage and has the most impact is the first pick. As the name suggests, this is the top pick from the very first team to choose. Not only can this have a huge impact on the league, but it also shows who is believed to be the biggest rookie star coming up through the rankings. The Jacksonville Jaguars go first this year, and super hyped is 6 foot quarterback Trevor Lawrence. He’s viewed as a favourite for the top spot this year.
Now, just to be clear, this is a rundown of the most popular NFL draft betting markets, not necessarily what I think is strategically wise. Trevor Lawrence is an overwhelming favourite for both this and first pick. Essentially, that means one of these markets is like running while your ship fires through hyperspace – there’s extra movement, but where you end up remains the same.
Now we’re getting into some positions which have a little more legroom in terms of NFL draft odds. It’s still a two horse race for the most part, with Travis Erienne and Najee Harris getting the overwhelming majority of attention. But, they#re close enough to make this an interesting match up, and there’s still a role for an outsider candidate for those of you looking for longer odds.
A very similar betting field to First Running Back here in terms of how the NFL draft props have worked out. You have Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith making up the overwhelming majority of implied probability: both of which are on either side of evens by a few percent. Balancing this out perfectly like a gravitational pull are the outliers, which include Jaylen Waddle and Rashod Bateman, for those of you looking to shoot to the moon and back with your returns.
Considering that at as the Earth spins at this particular moment, bookies have both the favourite for the two most popular NFL draft picks at around 98% – give or take a point or two – and they’re both the same player, I’d say one piece of extremely important advice here is, unless you’re happy to go with very short odds, look outside of the mainstream.
Luckily, other than those two particular markets, pretty much everywhere else has a mixture of long and close to even odds. This means there’s scope for a wide variety of people. Whether we’re talking about betting on NFL draft or the many beings which make up the many solar systems – from Earthlings to martians – we’re all different and that’s what makes life so interesting.
When I talked about the different markets out there, I also gave some insight to the type of odds available. Not only that, but understanding the markets themselves is an important part of research. And guess what one of the vital strategic points of NFL draft betting is? That’s right, doing your research. I taught you strategy before I taught you strategy. Mind blown. Cosmic expanded. Please everyone, write to the space core and tell them what a fantastic captain I am, thank you.
Jokes aside, research remains a vital part of any and all strategy. The more you know about the possible picks, the better your chances of making correct predictions and identifying good betting opportunities. I know this is strategy that can be applied to almost any kind of betting market but I think it’s most important to reiterate here. Remember that although it doesn’t take place on the field, the NFL draft is related to performance (among other factors) and thus, research is once again the friend of smart betting here.
The NFL draft is like a bridge into another world for players – the ultimate galactic leap into greatness. For those already interested in college football, this expands their betting landscape to include lower and higher leagues. For those less knowledgeable about college football, this is the perfect chance to get invested and allow the draft to expand your knowledge of the game as a whole.
Everything you learn in your research can – and should – be applied elsewhere as much as possible. Whether it’s this, or all other known and unknown universes, knowledge is always one of the most powerful forces out there.
At one time, NFL draft betting may have been a rather unusual, left-field kind of betting market. But hey, we once thought the sun revolved around the Earth. Today, it’s very mainstream, even outside America, with a huge amount of competing operators looking to be the one you choose to bet with.
‘Competing’ is the key word, because here’s the good news, to get you to pick them out of a cosmos worth of competition, you’ll often find very generous promotions which are usable – or even made for – the NFL draft. My advice here is as simple as putting on your helmet: whether it’s a bet boost or free bet, so long as the terms are right, blast forward with those great promotions!
The NFL draft is a hurtling meteor of hype. Because the implications are so huge and there’s so much talk and build around it, the media and people’s expectations can have a big impact on odds. You may not realise this, but the betting universe is always an incredibly delicate balance. All that hype can have an impact.
So, some news stories suggest a team is going one way and that causes a surge of betting activity in that direction: that can actually create better odds for the alternative. As facts, rumour and hype rarely go together, this can mean several markets are artificially inflated beyond their realistic real world value. Recognising when this is the case means understanding your odds and putting your own research ahead of hype to make your decisions.
Betting on NFL draft is a joy for so many reasons. It’s just such a wonderful microcosm of just how inventive, varied and interesting the betting cosmos can be. Sometimes it can feel like there’s as many markets as stars in the sky, and that’s a good thing in my book. Sure, as an individual you might not need every betting option out there, but somebody will, and that’s what makes online betting such a great adventure.
Better still is how so many of them work as an education for others. What you learn when researching and contemplating your NFL draft betting options can also be used to help when betting on your favourite teams more generally. Like the solar system, it may seem so big that you can hardly comprehend it, but look a little closer and you’ll see it’s all working in perfect harmony.
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