With MLB’s lockout keeping the typical hot stove season on ice for the majority of the offseason, a flurry of post-lockout transactions have caused significant fluctuations in the MLB futures betting markets. Typically the markets are stagnant once spring training begins, but this year lines are moving nearly every day as big name players join new teams.
Freeze on transaction causes a flurry of activity
With teams unable to conduct their typical offseason activities due to MLB’s lockout, the usual pace of baseball’s “hot stove” season was drastically accelerated. The unusual offseason has made for a very fluid futures betting market that changes frequently as star players join new teams. Savvy bettors with confidence in their front offices had unique opportunities to get their money down in anticipation of rumored trades or free agent signings, and some of those bettors are already seeing the odds shifting drastically in their favor at
sports betting sites.
The biggest shift was the Toronto Blue Jays taking over as the favorites in the American League Eastern division. The Blue Jays made some strong moves before the lockout, and when the markets opened they were +230 to win the division, +550 to win the AL Championship, and +1000 to win the World Series. The Yankees opened as AL East favorites at +185, but the additions of Matt Chapman and Yusei Kikuchi pushed the Blue Jays to +185 to win the AL East while the Yankees dipped to +195. Toronto moved up to +450 to win the AL Championship, surpassing both the Yankees and White Sox who opened ahead of them. Toronto is now +900 to win the World Series, making them the second-most-favored team behind the Dodgers.
The biggest favorite gets a boost
The LA Dodgers were the overall favorite to win the World Series when markets opened, and the addition of superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman has pushed the odds further in their favor. Their World Series odds have dropped from +550 to +500, their NL Championship odds dropped from +300 to +240, and they went from being a strong favorite in the NL West (-136) to an overwhelming one at -220. The bookmakers clearly think that the addition of Freeman sets them further apart from their competition.
The Phillies’ addition of two power bats in Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos pushed them past the Giants on the World Series favorites list, as they now sit at +2500 after their new additions. The Red Sox kept the pace by adding Trevor Story, and while they didn’t gain in the eyes of the books, they avoided falling behind their competitors who bolstered their lineups. While the Braves took a hit by not retaining Freddie Freeman, they have boosted their overall
sports betting odds
and pulled even in World Series odds (+1000) with the Astros by acquiring Matt Olsen and Kenley Jansen while re-signing Jorge Soler.
Most big names are off the market
While there are still some talented players looking for 2022 jobs, the high profile impact players have all found a home. It is unlikely that any free agent signing will have a significant enough impact to affect the future betting odds. The possibility of a blockbuster trade that shifts the balance of power still does exist, although it does become less likely as Opening Day draws closer. Sean Menaea of the Athletics is potentially still available via trade and his acquisition could offer a big boost to a starting rotation, so futures bettors will want to track rumors related to his market if they are looking to take advantage of an inefficiency in the futures betting market.
Spring training games are underway, and players are well into their preparations for the 2022 season. Gamblers who were able to capitalize on the unprecedented opportunities in the MLB futures betting market at
top bookmakers
will soon see if their savvy wagers will yield the high payout results they desire. For bettors who still want to get in on futures action, the best bet may be to watch the early season action and look for opportunities to buy low on teams that have great potential but get off to a poor start.
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