Week 11’s Sunday Night Football matchup is a good one as the 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers head to Los Angeles to face the 5-4 Chargers. The spread has grown as the week has gone on in favor of the Chargers, but with Big Ben likely back in the lineup and the Chargers losing three out of their last four games should the spread be this large?
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The Spread: Steelers +5.5 (-110)
This spread has moved quite a bit since opening with the Chargers at 3.5 point favorites. It has dipped all the way to favoring the bolts by 6.5 before settling back at 5.5. I understand this spread if Big Ben was out and Mason Rudolph was in, but all signs are pointing to Big Ben making the trip to LA.
Home field advantage usually gives the home team about 3 points extra, but does anyone think there will be a majority Chargers crowd in LA? I was at a Monday Night Football game between these two teams back when the Chargers were in San Diego and they actually had fans and still a ton of the Steeler faithful made the trip. This will at best be a neutral crowd and at worst a home game for the Steelers.
The Chargers have a knack for making close games when they shouldn’t. In fact, seven out of their nine games have been won or lost by a touchdown or less. I see this matchup following that trend. I would take the Chargers to win, but the Steelers will keep it close and cover the spread.
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The Points: Over 47 (-110)
If there’s one thing the Chargers defense has done over the past month it’s given up points. On average over their last five games they’ve allowed 30.8 points per game. The Steelers have been carried by their defense and over their last five games have only allowed 16.6 points per game. However, they haven’t faced an offense quite like the Chargers in those five games when they faced the Lions, Bears, Browns, Geno Smith led Seahawks, and Broncos.
The Chargers shouldn’t have an issue scoring, and their defense will give up points to the Steelers. This will be a high scoring game and the over should get hit.
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