The surging 4-3 Pittsburgh Steelers play host to the struggling 3-5 Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football for Week 9. Once this game is finished we will officially be through the first half of the NFL’s 18 week regular season. Questions still remain though for many teams in the league, including these two. Is Pittsburgh better off without Big Ben? Is Matt Nagy’s time coming to an end with the Chicago Bears, and is Justin Fields their quarterback of the future?
October started with the Bears winning two games, but they’ve now last their last three against the spread and straight up. The Steelers started slow, but come into tonight’s game riding a three game win streak, two of which they covered against.
Pittsburgh is favored to win this one by a touchdown, and while I think they will win, I don’t see them covering. They’ve only beaten one team this season by more the seven points. It was when they beat the Broncos by eight. Add to that an anemic offense that only averages 18 points per game and it’s hard to see them running away with a win.
Life after NVP Mitch Trubisky has been tough for Chicago. However, Justin Fields is getting more comfortable, and the coaching staff are figuring out how to use him to his strengths. Frankly one of Fields’ weaknesses is throwing the ball. A tough weakness for a quarterback to have in today’s NFL. The Bears are currently last in passing offense according to DVOA statistics. Fields’s is also 31st in completion percentage, 32nd in yards per attempt, interception rate, and passer rating, and 33rd in TD rate, sack rate, and QBR.
Knowing this the Bears have been shifting to a run first offense and are including not just the running backs, but Fields in that strategy as well. Unfortunately for them, the Steelers have a top defense, especially against the run. The Steelers will come away with the win, but won’t score enough points and the Bears will cover the spread.
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Point Total: Under 39.5 (-110)
We’ve already talked about how the Steelers are struggling to put up points this season both in their wins and losses. Chicago isn’t doing much better, they only average just over 15 points per game, and have yet to score more than 25 points in any game this season. Maybe this is the week both offenses figure it out and explode, but it’s much more likely that the trends continue and the under hits.
Props
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Diontae Johnson (+125)
It can be hard to pick touchdown scorers in games with an point total this low. I prefer to look at consistency then in these situations. Johnson has been steady for Steel City going over 70 yards in every contest but one, and getting 13 targets in three of his last four games. He’s Ben’s guy, and he’s my guy to make it in the endzone tonight.
If you’re looking for a bigger bet take Justin Fields to do it with his legs at (+390).
Justin Fields Under 184.5 Passing Yards (-113)
This number is high, especially when you consider he’s playing the Steelers. Fields has only gone over this number one time this season. It was against the Lions…
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