Kalshi's World Cup Winner Prediction Market Hits $1B as USA Progresses
The outright winner World Cup prediction market is surging at the quarterfinal stage, with industry giant Kalshi reporting over $1 billion in trades.
The FIFA World Cup winner market on Kalshi is attracting serious money, with France now holding a 34.5% implied probability of lifting the trophy. Bucking the odds at online sportsbooks is Argentina, with a 17.4% chance if you purchase event contracts.
At a Glance:
- Over $1 billion traded on the 2026 World Cup outright winner market
- France still outright favorite to win the World Cup at $0.34
- The USA climbs to $0.04 following their progression to the last 16
- USMNT bolstered by return of Folarin Balogun, now eligible for the last 16 clash
France the clear favorites at every prediction market
The major prediction markets offer trades on the FIFA World Cup, running until July 19. In addition to the outright winner, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade shares in the Golden Boot winner and individual matches.
France were our World Cup outright winner prediction before the tournament began. With the quarterfinals all but set, their trade price has risen from $0.18 to $0.34.
The nature of prediction markets means traders can now sell France to lock in a $0.16 profit at that price.
The United States take on Belgium in the Last 16 on July 7, with a quarterfinal clash against Portugal or Spain to follow.
There was controversy at the weekend, however, when the USA’s Folarin Balogun had his one-match suspension rescinded following an intervention from Donald Trump. There has been uproar at the alleged preferential treatment shown by FIFA.
However, the United States have been excellent at this World Cup, and prediction market traders are spotting value in their $0.04 price.
Traders winning and losing big on volatile markets
While huge volume is being traded in the World Cup prediction markets, the wins and losses are big.
Two traders reportedly lost a combined $2 million backing the USA versus Turkey in an early group match.
Kaan Ayhan scored a 98th-minute goal to secure a last-gasp 3-2 win for Turkey. One anonymous trader lost $1.3 million alone after buying ‘Yes’ contracts on America to win.
Michigan blow doesn’t slow Kalshi’s progress
Kalshi is one of the biggest prediction market platforms in the U.S. Alongside political events and pop culture, it offers markets on all major soccer games, including this summer’s World Cup.
However, it still faces significant regulatory obstacles in U.S. states.
Kalshi was ordered to stop offering sports event contracts in Michigan following a judicial ruling. Michigan argues that prediction markets offering sports are no different from online sportsbooks and must therefore be regulated and taxed.
It was a blow to Kalshi’s business, which it insists offers event contracts more akin to derivatives rather than sports betting. It’s a key battle between various U.S. states that feel they are being ridden over by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets in the USA.
Seeing market volume in the billions of dollars will only spur other states to get tough with prediction markets. For now, Kalshi will continue to take commissions on sports contracts, with even more trades expected as the World Cup progresses.
