New Ohio Bill Would Make Prediction Markets State Regulated
If passed, a new bill introduced in Ohio on April 28 would treat prediction market platforms like sportsbooks, with licensing, regulation, and taxation taken over by the state. They are currently regulated at the federal level.
The newly introduced Ohio bill on prediction markets
Just days after lawmakers proposed a ban on legal betting in Ohio, state Senator Bill DeMora introduced Bill 430, which lays the groundwork for regulating prediction market platforms such as Kalshi.
Several states, including Ohio, have court cases against prediction market platforms, specifically Kalshi, to block it from offering event contracts in those states.
DeMora intends to push the bill if the current court cases in Ohio and other states fail to block prediction market platforms. He said, "If somehow, we lose the court cases, and they say, well, they can do this, then they ought to be taxed for it. They ought to be regulated."
Ohio plans further action
Sports betting is legal in Ohio — licensed and regulated by the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC). The OCCC believes, as more and more states have, that the sports event contracts offered by prediction market platforms are sports wagers. As a result, the OCCC stated a couple of weeks ago that, because Kalshi is taking sports bets in the state, it would issue it a $5 million fine.
Kalshi filed for a preliminary injunction against officials in Ohio, which was denied by the U.S. Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals on April 24. However, right after the decision, the court granted an appeal, fast-tracking it, where Kalshi would file its brief in early May, with Ohio countering with its response in early June.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission fighting back
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) currently regulates the prediction market industry at the federal level, and it has been fighting back. The CFTC has intervened in some state cases against prediction market operators and has also filed suits against states trying to block prediction market services.
In two cases involving a potential ban on Kalshi, the CFTC intervened. It won a case in New Jersey while losing one in Nevada.
More action at the federal level
Given conflicting rulings and ongoing active cases, it may only be a matter of time before the prediction market issue goes before the Supreme Court. Bill Miller, president and CEO of the American Gaming Association, was critical of the CFTC and federally regulated prediction markets.
Several senators and members of the House have already filed bills that would not only restrict sports betting contracts, which account for around 90% of trades, but also others. Those others that have been pinpointed in the bills concern national security, such as military action.
Recently, a U.S. soldier was arrested after profiting from trades using insider information. He made trades on whether Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be captured by Jan. 31, 2026, which he was, and he was a part of the team that executed the mission. The soldier purchased 436,000 contracts from Polymarket for $33,000, which paid out a little over $400,000.
Prior to Maduro’s capture on Jan. 3, there were reports of suspicious trades related to that event contract.
The issue of the soldier’s arrest was broached at a recent meeting at the White House, where President Trump was critical of prediction markets. He voiced his concern about the recent conflict with Iran and about insider trading involving contracts related to it.
