Prediction Markets Generate Over $50B in Volume in June, Report Suggests
Online prediction markets generated over $50 billion in trading volume last month, according to a new report.
The report, commissioned by Macquarie Equity Research, shows that prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing enormous growth, helped in part by the FIFA World Cup.
Kalshi alone recorded $33 billion in trading volume, thanks to its outright winner market. Kalshi traders have helped the World Cup winner market generate over $1 billion in trading volume.
At a Glance:
- Prediction sites generated over $50 billion in June 2026
- Kalshi accounted for 65% of total volume, according to note
- $50 billion volume in line with Macquarie’s earlier prediction
- Momentum driven by FIFA World Cup in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico
- Kalshi valued at $22 billion following multiple recent investments
FIFA World Cup driving huge prediction market boom
The 2026 World Cup is currently being co-hosted by the USA, Mexico, and Canada. And it’s soccer fans, as well as homegrown traders in the U.S., who are driving traffic.
The FIFA World Cup winner market has generated $1.09 billion, with just the quarterfinals, semis, and final to go. That sum should increase significantly as the final approaches, even with the USA knocked out.
The France vs. Morocco semifinal on July 9 attracted over $38 million in trading volume: a staggering sum for a World Cup quarterfinal.
Kalshi the market leader, but DraftKings coming up
Based on trading volume and marketing deals, Kalshi comes out as the clear frontrunner as the biggest prediction market app.
Similarly, rivals like Polymarket are partnering with soccer leagues like LALIGA to bolster their global reach.
The Macquarie note illustrates how Kalshi has pulled ahead of its rivals. While smaller site ADI Predictstreet has a partnership deal with FIFA, it doesn’t have the user reach of its bigger rival.
Similarly, DraftKings is slowly making up lost ground with its own predictions platform. According to Macquarie’s report, DraftKings Predictions had over $3 billion in trading volume for the week ending June 21.
Regulatory concerns cloud 'unprecedented momentum'
Kalshi’s value shot up in 2026 following an investment drive. It’s now worth over $22 billion, with a successful World Cup sure to have increased that valuation.
However, it’s not all plain sailing for the world’s biggest prediction market app. Kalshi has spent much of 2026 embroiled in regulatory fist fights with state lawmakers over its platform.
Kalshi was sued by states, including Arizona and Nevada, for offering prediction markets in their states. Prediction market sites like Kalshi are regulated by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) in the U.S.
That means prediction markets enjoy federal oversight as trading platforms. That’s in direct conflict with states, which argue prediction sites are just sportsbooks in disguise.
With billions more in trading volume, of which Kalshi takes a chunk, expect state lawmakers to cry foul even more over the coming months.
