Prediction Markets Prepare for World Cup Trading Bonanza as Volume Soars
World Cup prediction markets are set to go stratospheric as the FIFA soccer tournament kicks off in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
The FIFA World Cup starts on June 11, with matches continuing until July 19. A record number of teams (48) are competing, but a bumper month of betting and trades on the prediction markets is expected.
At a Glance:
- Polymarket records $1.9 billion in trades on World Cup winner
- FIFA World Cup co-hosted by U.S., Canada, and Mexico
- Expanded tournament with 48 teams over 104 matches
- Spain and France vie for favoritism on the prediction markets
- Alternative markets offered, including Trump attending the WC final
Biggest World Cup ever for multiple reasons
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicked off on June 11, with co-host Mexico taking on South Africa in the opening game.
An expanded World Cup means there are now 48 teams (up from 32 in Qatar four years ago) to squeeze into a congested schedule. That means more matches, and many more betting and trading opportunities.
How prediction markets are changing the narrative
Online prediction markets are enjoying some of the biggest trading volumes when factoring in betting sites.
Polymarket has recorded nearly $2 billion in trade on its World Cup winner market alone. The nearest rival, Kalshi, has seen $125 million traded on the same outcome.
Unlike traditional online sportsbooks that are managed by a central odds compiler, prediction markets rely on customers to drive the market. Prices can go up or down depending on the share prices set by other users.
Additionally, you don’t have to wait until the end of the World Cup to cash in. You can trade in and out of your position early to secure a profit weeks before the tournament ends.
Spain, France favored in World Cup prediction markets
The World Cup outright winner market is attracting the most money. Spain and France have traded the No. 1 position in recent days, with both teams’ young superstars attracting fans and savvy traders alike.
Prediction markets also offer alternative markets beyond individual match results. The market on the continent to win the World Cup is skewed toward Europe, but it offers coverage if you want to bet on multiple countries at once.
Sports betting giants move toward prediction markets
With the World Cup arriving, sportsbook operators have been quick to pivot toward the more lucrative prediction markets. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have been busy reshaping their business model as prediction markets dominate the narrative.
This week, FanDuel announced staff layoffs as it looks ahead to bolstering its FanDuel Predicts platform. DraftKings, meanwhile, reported $3.1 billion in trading volume on its DraftKings Predictions platform, marking an enormous month-over-month boost.
A successful 2026 World Cup on the prediction markets will only encourage established sportsbook operators to diversify further. That could include operators like bet365, who have so far resisted the temptation to launch a prediction market site of their own.
