Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act Introduced in Congress
A member of the United States Congress introduced the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act, which would ban members of Congress from trading in political contracts on prediction market platforms.
The bill, tabled by Committee on House Administration Chairman Bryan Steil, only bans the buying and selling of political contracts. Trading other event contracts covering sports and other categories would not be restricted.
Key details of the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act
If passed, the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act would ban members of Congress, along with their spouses and children, from engaging in trades in political contracts on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
The ban would cover contracts for political outcomes, policy decisions, and government actions, including military interventions.
The bill also states that trades would be banned, “on any other event which has come to the attention of a covered individual as a result, directly or indirectly, of the service of a Member of Congress in the United States Congress, regardless of any connection to the congressional duties of such Member.”
The bill makes sense: it prohibits members of Congress and their families from profiting from insider information.
Trump reportedly onboard
It has been reported that support for the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act has come from President Donald Trump and other influential lawmakers, such as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. House Republicans have said the bill will be voted on.
Trump has been critical of prediction markets in the past and was especially so in late April when Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for profiting from trades focusing on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The soldier used inside information to net over $400,000 in profit. He was a part of the team that initiated the capture.
Also, in April, prediction market giant Kalshi imposed suspensions and fines on three U.S. politicians for trading in their own campaigns.
The Senate was first
On April 30, the U.S. Senate approved a resolution that would ban all Senate members, as well as staff, from trading on prediction markets. Senators, officers, and staff cannot trade on prediction markets, and unlike the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act, it is an outright ban on all contracts — not just political ones.
As it stands now, there are a significant number of bills in Congress that deal with prediction market trading. Some deal with outright bans, while others target specific contracts. However, they all share the goal of prohibiting the use of inside information to profit from trades.
Sports are not the issue
Again, there is no mention of sports trading in the recent Congress bill. Steil said he sees no ethical ramifications for sports trades for members of Congress and their families. The crux of the bill is to keep lawmakers from benefiting from insider information.
“The American people deserve to know their member of Congress is not profiting off insider information," said Steil. "The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that it cannot happen.
"This legislation is critical to restoring the public’s trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”
