World Cup Outright Winner Trades Top $4.3B on Polymarket
Trades on the World Cup winner prediction market at Polymarket have topped $4.3 billion for the first time.
Spain take on Argentina in the World Cup final on Sunday, July 19, and trading volume has spiked as customers take their positions.
Spain are trading at $0.59 to win the World Cup, representing a 59% implied probability. Argentina are at $0.41 for a 41% implied probability of lifting the trophy.
At a Glance:
- $4.3 billion traded on Polymarket on World Cup winner market
- Over $150 million alone traded on Argentina to win
- World Cup final takes place on July 19
- Morocco had seen the biggest trading volume, worth $150 million
- Argentina are reigning World Cup champions, Spain the European champs
2026 World Cup biggest event of all time for prediction markets
Polymarket had recorded around $1.9 billion in trades just before the first World Cup game kicked off over a month ago.
With more teams (48, up from 32) and more games, trading on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi boomed.
2026 FIFA World Cup: Quick facts
- Where: United States, Canada, Mexico
- When: June 11-July 19
- Teams: 48
- Matches: 104
- Host Cities: 16
France disappoint ‘Yes’ traders as Les Bleus fall short
Over $132 million was traded on France to become the World Cup winner. They lost in a shock 2-0 defeat to Spain in the first semifinal. Les Bleus had been trading at $0.18 to win the World Cup shortly before the first game.
France’s ‘Yes’ contracts jumped to around $0.40 before their quarterfinal match against Spain. Sensible traders who’d spotted Spain’s consistent under-the-radar performances could sell for a $0.40 profit per share.
England attracted $110 million in overall trades, vying for favoritism among the frontrunners. Ultimately, the Three Lions fell short, coming agonizingly close to reaching a first World Cup final since 1966.
Argentina scored two late goals in the second semifinal to send England into the Bronze Medal game, and themselves to the New York New Jersey stadium on Sunday.
‘Europe to win World Cup’ market still in the balance
Traders on the ‘Continent to Win the World Cup’ market were crossing their fingers at an England win over Argentina in the semifinal. A Spain-England final would have automatically resolved this market, regardless of who won.
A ‘Yes’ for Europe was trading as high as $0.80 before England’s defeat against Argentina. Traders can still buy ‘Yes’ contracts at $0.59 now – effectively a trade on Spain winning the World Cup against their South American rivals.
Expanded World Cup will mean even more trading volume
FIFA boss, Gianni Infantino, suggested that they will explore the possibility of expanding the men’s World Cup to 64 teams going forward.
The 2026 competition was expanded to 48 teams for the first time. Despite concerns over poorer games, the reality has been different. Smaller countries like Cape Verde have competed well, and there have been relatively few drubbings.
However, FIFA is keen to open up the tournament to as wide a selection of countries as possible. What that means for an already congested domestic soccer calendar remains to be seen.
It will certainly mean much larger trading volume for prediction markets, and that $4.3 billion volume will surely be surpassed.
