2026 Game of the Year Picks: GTA 6 Stealing Prediction Market Spotlight
The prediction markets have spoken on the winner of the 2026 Game of the Year. Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in November and take the top spot? Or will Resident Evil Requiem do enough to take Rockstar Games’ glory?
We have assessed the Kalshi prediction markets to compare the frontrunners and see if there’s value to be had.
At a Glance:
- Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) leads the way, but will it be released in time?
- Resident Evil Requiem is the solid value pick at 12%. Can it catch GTA 6?
- Game of the Year 2026 is determined by winning the Game Awards in December.
How the Game of the Year prediction markets work
The big prediction market sites allow you to buy and sell shares on which title you think will win Game of the Year in 2026.
Other customers may sell shares to you, or you can put up your own to sell.
One share in, say, GTA 6, always resolves at $1.00 once the Game of the Year Awards take place. Therefore, if you bought one share at $0.52 and it won, you’d earn a $0.48 profit.
Similarly, you can buy a share in a game not to win. The ‘No’ trade works the same way. Provided that the game doesn’t win, you get paid out.
Game of the Year frontrunners in 2026
Let’s look closer at some of the big names in the running for the 2026 Game of the Year.
Grand Theft Auto VI: ‘Yes’ @ $0.61
The clear leader on the prediction markets is Rockstar Games’ Grand Theft Auto VI. It’s been years in the making and has suffered multiple delays. You can even place trades on the GTA 6 release date at prediction market sites.
However, last month, the CEO of Take-Two, Rockstar Games’ parent company, said in an interview that he was confident about a November 2026 release.
Certainly, the pre-Christmas release would help shift units. Plus, it would lock in a chance of winning Game of the Year 2026, a ceremony that doesn’t take place until December.
Resident Evil Requiem: ‘Yes’ @ $0.13
You may want to opt for Resident Evil Requiem if you think GTA 6 is overpriced. The ninth installment of the zombie series dropped in February, so it’s had plenty of time to gain traction.
Resident Evil Requiem already won big at the 2025 Gamescom Awards, bagging four major awards, including Best Sony PlayStation Game.
Realistically, this is a two-part bet. First, you expect GTA 6 not to be released this year. Second, you believe Resident Evil Requiem is good enough to win by itself.
Crimson Desert: ‘No’ @ $0.92
Let’s end the 2026 Game of the Year picks with a big leftfield choice. Crimson Desert was nominated in the Gamescom Awards last year but didn’t win.
However, Game of the Year 2025 did go to Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. The quirky RPG deflected accusations of AI usage to beat the likes of Hollow Knight Silksong and Donkey Kong Bananza.
While offering thin value, the ‘No’ at $0.92 seems the most obvious play here.
