2027 Oscar Best Picture Picks at Prediction Markets: 'The Odyssey' Leads Pack
The 2027 Oscar Best Picture prediction markets are up and running, with many films on the list not even in theaters yet.
Will Christopher Nolan’s "The Odyssey" earn the director a second Oscar? Or will Denis Villeneuve trigger the Peter Jackson effect and win Best Picture for the third "Dune" installment?
At a Glance:
- Christopher Nolan’s "The Odyssey" is the clear favorite one year out
- Could "Dune: Part 3" spring a surprise for value hunters?
- Outcome is verified by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences
How the Oscar Best Picture prediction markets work
On the Best Picture prediction market for the Academy Awards, you buy shares in whether you think a film will win the accolade, or not.
For example, at prediction market sites, you may buy a ‘Yes’ share on "The Odyssey" winning Best Picture. Alternatively, you can buy ‘No’ that the film won’t win if you assume any other movie will win the top prize.
Go long-term for value
The long lead time to the 2027 Oscars is key in playing the Best Picture prediction market. You can buy the value by backing ‘Yes’ on "The Odyssey" now at just $0.23.
Follow the buzz after release
Once it is released, you’ll hope for positive reviews and social media buzz to help drive up its share price.
Then you might sell your shares and bank a profit well before the Oscars arrive. That’s one advantage Kalshi and others have over online sportsbooks like bet365.
2027 Oscar Best Picture frontrunners
With nearly a year to go, it’s hard to know which movies will be vying for the Best Picture Oscar. However, here are some of the frontrunners currently leading the prediction markets.
'The Odyssey': ‘Yes’ @ $0.22
Release date: July 17
Christopher Nolan is that curiosity of cinema: he makes big-budget blockbusters with an arthouse feel. Plus, his movies make squillions of dollars, something the Academy absolutely loves.
Nolan finally won an Oscar for Best Director in 2024 as "Oppenheimer" won Best Picture. "The Odyssey" is already generating buzz through its trailers. Now is a good time to buy the ‘Yes’ and sell later as the pre-summer chatter gets loud.
'Digger': ‘Yes’ @ $0.14
Release date: Oct. 2
"Digger" is Tom Cruise's first venture since he packed up his "Mission: Impossible" stunt gear. It’s a comedy directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, and features support from Oscar-bait like Riz Ahmed and Sandra Huller.
The later release date means Oscar voters will have the film in mind when they cast their ballots. However, comedies rarely win Best Picture, so this may be a better trade on Tom Cruise picking up an Academy Award for his acting.
'Dune: Part Three': ‘Yes’ @ $0.14
Release date: Dec. 18
Denis Villeneuve completes his "Dune" trilogy with a highly anticipated third installment this Christmas. It’s released the same day as "Avengers: Doomsday," so expect a box office bonanza.
Plus, Villeneuve is hot right now after it was confirmed he will direct the next "James Bond" movie.
"Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" won Best Picture in 2004. That was more of a sentimental vote to celebrate the entire LOTR trilogy. That might happen to "Dune: Part Three," and value traders will certainly be hoping so.
2027 Oscar Best Picture prediction: Lock in 'The Odyssey' before release
It’s hard to know which way the Oscars will fall so early in the season. Most of the frontrunners are yet to hit the theaters. A sleeper hit could well disrupt the markets in a few months’ time.
However, the key reason to trade now is to find value. "The Odyssey" might not be $0.23 for long after it hits the IMAX screens.
Good reviews and word of mouth will bring more people to the cinemas. That means its chances of Oscar glory increase, as does its share price. You can therefore sell after the summer and guarantee a profit no matter what happens.
