2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Picks: Prediction Markets Favor Gavin Newsom
With two years remaining, the race to become the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee is heating up.
The prediction markets have had their say, but is California Gov. Gavin Newsom the lock that share traders believe him to be?
We examine the market movers to see where the value lies.
At a Glance:
- Gavin Newsom is the prediction market favorite at around 24%
- Only Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is anywhere close at an 11% shot
- There’s value in buying a ‘Yes’ on Newsom now, and closing later
How the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee prediction market works
Online prediction markets such as Kalshi have been running Democratic presidential nominee markets for a while. You can buy shares on who you think will or won’t bag the nominee to fight the Republican candidate for the presidency.
Prediction markets work differently from online sportsbooks that have a centralized odds compiler. A prediction market consists of shares priced by the customers themselves.
You can buy a share offered by another customer (e.g. a ‘Yes’ on Gavin Newsom being the Democratic presidential nominee). Alternatively, you can trade the other way and buy the ‘No’ that that candidate won’t become the nominee.
How the Democratic presidential nominee market resolves
- A 'Yes' contract resolves at $1 if a candidate wins and accepts the nomination
- Outcome is verified by the Democratic Party
2028 Democratic presidential nominee picks
With two years until the primaries, here are some of the early price picks.
Gavin Newsom: ‘Yes’ @ $0.24
Until mid-2025, Gavin Newsom was neck and neck with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Democratic nominee markets. However, a poll that summer showed Newsom’s popularity growing by 8 points (from 11 in June 2025 to 19 in August).
The California governor has been fighting a slick war of words with Donald Trump. That has mainly been about issues such as the redrawing of state lines in the run-up to this year’s midterms.
The economy is key to most elections, and as governor, Newsom has seen California outpace most global economies. That alone could get Newsom the ticket he craves.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: ‘Yes’ @ $0.12
Next in the markets is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This is where the value pick could come.
At $0.12, AOC represents better value than Newsom. Plus, the progressive topped a recent AtlasIntel poll among Democratic voters.
AOC would be the choice of left-leaning voters in the primaries. However, she has hinted that she could do better work behind the scenes. A Secretary of State position, perhaps?
Pete Buttigieg: ‘Yes’ @ $0.05
The big value pick in the race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee is Pete Buttigieg. He polled at 22.4% in the AtlasIntel poll, ahead of prediction market favorite Gov. Newsom.
He is a former naval officer and served as U.S. Secretary of Transportation. He has been highly visible in recent weeks, traveling the country to rally support for district campaigners in the run-up to the midterms.
Buttigieg has brushed off growing murmurs about running in 2028. Even if he doesn’t, buying the ‘Yes’ now at $0.05 and selling later could be the smart value move.
Final thoughts
Much can happen between now and the announcement of the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee pick. Buying shares in a candidate now and selling later may prove to be the smartest move in a crowded market.
Don't forget to check out our Republican presidential nominee picks as the election approaches.
