Best Actor Oscar Winner Prediction Market: Matt Damon’s Odyssey?
Prediction markets are starting to heat up in the race for the Best Actor Oscar for 2027. Can a post-"Mission Impossible" Tom Cruise bank a first Best Actor Academy Award, or is it Matt Damon’s “Odyssey” to lose?
“The Odyssey” has created all the buzz, with a stellar release on IMAX, a near-perfect Rotten Tomatoes score, and a big awards season predicted.
Matt Damon already has one Oscar – for "Good Will Hunting" at the start of his career. However, with Cillian Murphy already winning for another Christopher Nolan film (“Oppenheimer” in 2023), this could be Damon’s year.
At a Glance:
- Tom Cruise just shades Matt Damon for favoritism on the prediction markets
- Matt Damon’s Best Actor buzz for "The Odyssey" could be hard to resist
- At 33%, Kalshi traders are carefully weighing up the Nolan Effect
- Consider value plays like John Malkovich at 10%
How Best Actor Oscar prediction markets work
The top prediction markets like Kalshi offer event contracts on who will win the Best Actor Oscar.
You buy and sell shares in one of the possible winners, just like trading in gold or commodities. The better an actor’s chances, the more their shares are worth.
For example, Tom Cruise in “Digger” is trading at 37ȼ on Kalshi. That means traders give him a 37% probability of winning.
One share in Tom Cruise costs $0.37 and resolves at $1.00 if he wins. You would therefore win $0.63 on each share you own.
The Best Actor Oscar market is verified by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts for the purpose of determining the final winner.
2027 Best Actor Oscar frontrunners analyzed
A late-career shoe-in for Tom Cruise, or another Nolan nom for Matt Damon? Here’s what the prediction markets are saying are the big picks on the 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations.
Tom Cruise (‘Digger’): ‘Yes’ @ $0.37
Tom Cruise bowed out of the action movie business (for now) with an epic final “Mission Impossible” movie last year. Hitting a quieter note, Cruise turns to satirical black comedy in “Digger”. It’s already enjoying favoritism at online sportsbooks that put it ahead of “The Odyssey” for Best Picture.
Cruise obviously looks like he’s having a blast as an oil tycoon out to save the world. It’s sure to earn him a Golden Globe nomination, at least. Is it enough for an Oscar too?
“Digger” has Oscar pedigree on board in the shape of Alejandro G. Iñárritu, the award-winning director behind “Birdman” and “The Revenant”. That’s the sort of name that can deliver big awards for a film’s performers.
Matt Damon (‘The Odyssey’): ‘Yes’ @ $0.34
“The Odyssey” looks on course to win the Best Picture Oscar in 2027, but what about its main star?
Matt Damon could, like Cillian Murphy, get swept up in the buzz surrounding Christopher Nolan’s latest blockbuster.
Plus, "The Odyssey" opened to huge box office takings, ensuring it will feature heavily in next year's awards.
Damon has come close before, nominated for films including “The Martian” and “The Talented Mr. Ripley”. An action hero performance hasn’t won a Best Actor Oscar for its star since Russell Crowe in 2000’s “Gladiator”. Could this be the year that changes?
Andrew Scott (‘Pressure’): ‘Yes’ @ $0.14
Irish actor, Andrew Scott, is better-known for his role in “Sherlock” playing the evil Professor Moriarty. However, he’s showing his versatility in “Pressure”, a war movie about a meteorologist finding the perfect weather to launch D-Day.
It’s not the sexiest film premise in the world, but it should attract buzz at the Golden Globes, which usually loves this kind of fare. Also keep an eye on Best Supporting Actor chatter around Brendan Fraser, who plays Dwight D. Eisenhower.
2027 Best Actor Oscar prediction: Damon the smart play
Though Tom Cruise has a slightly higher win probability, we recommend a strong buy on Matt Damon. “The Odyssey” is already bringing in megabucks at the box office, and it’s sure to feature in multiple best-ofs come the end of the year.
In these uncertain times, Oscar voters want something to pin their optimistic ‘Yes’ on. Hit Kalshi and take advantage of the “Yes” play on Matt Damon for “The Odyssey”.
