Next UK Prime Minister Prediction Market: Andy Burnham a Heavy Favorite
Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms have leaped into the action on the Next U.K. Prime Minister prediction market, with Andy Burnham listed as the heavy favorite.
Following Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation this week, Burnham has been installed as the key — maybe only — frontrunner for the job.
Certainly, the prediction markets follow that sentiment, with the Labour MP (member of parliament) holding a 95% chance. But are there value plays elsewhere?
At a Glance:
- Andy Burnham has a 95% probability of winning the leadership contest
- Reform leader Nigel Farage (2%) calls for a general election
- A Labour leadership contest could put Burnham’s sure thing in doubt
How the 'Next UK Prime Minister' prediction market works
The big prediction markets like Kalshi allow customers to buy and sell shares in who will become the next U.K. prime minister.
Traders offer shares based on whether a candidate wins the post or not. You buy the ‘Yes’ or ‘No,’ provided there are traders willing to sell. You can even put your own shares up for sale at a price you decide.
All shares resolve at a total of $1 each. Therefore, when you buy a share at $0.19, you stand to profit $0.81. You also lose money if your prediction is wrong.
You can also trade on hundreds of political event contracts, from a Donald Trump impeachment to the Republican nominee winner. The prediction market takes a small cut of any trade.
Frontrunners to be next UK prime minister
Following Keir Starmer’s resignation on June 22, the frontrunners to replace him have emerged.
Andy Burnham: ‘Yes’ @ $0.95
Andy Burnham is the clear favorite to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister of the U.K. He had to resign as mayor of Greater Manchester, then fight a by-election to return to the House of Commons as an MP.
With those hurdles cleared, Starmer didn’t wait for the inevitable leadership challenge: he simply quit.
There are calls for a drama-free procession to 10 Downing Street for Burnham. He has support on all sides of the ruling Labour Party and is seen to have more charisma than the dour Starmer.
Angela Rayner: ‘Yes’ @ $0.03
There has been a little movement on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket for Angela Rayner, Starmer’s old deputy prime minister.
Rayner has been out of government following a housing scandal in her first months in post. However, with Starmer gone, some on the left of the party may want to put their faith in her.
A few other leftfield picks could emerge in a leadership contest — just for balance. It happened in 2015, when Jeremy Corbyn stood as the hard-left candidate and shocked the party membership by winning.
Shabana Mahmood (1.1%), Darren Jones (0.9%), and Catherine West (1%) are not household names in the U.K. but offer a tiny risk-to-reward ratio. You can read our prediction market guide and learn more about profiting from risky plays.
Andy Burnham’s leadership to lose
The strong feeling is that Andy Burnham’s ascent to the U.K. leadership will be a coronation, not a contest.
That may be true, but the ruling Labour party has many factions, notably the left vs. center-left groups who love a battle.
Burnham will need to convince both sides of his party that he’s the right man for the job. There’s value in backing ‘No’ for Burnham as the next U.K. prime minister. However, unless something dramatic happens, he will be entering 10 Downing Street before the summer is out.
