Trump to Attend World Cup Final Prediction Market: ‘Yes’ is the Play
Will Donald Trump attend the World Cup final on July 19? According to Kalshi traders, the answer is a definitive 90% ‘Yes’.
Prediction markets have been facilitating weird ‘n wacky event contracts since the FIFA World Cup began. The final on July 19 is set to be not just an epic soccer game, but also an advertisement for American glitz and glamor.
A halftime spectacle is being prepared, and Trump himself has been tipped not only to attend but also to present the World Cup to the winning team. Let’s examine the key plays on the prediction markets.
At a Glance:
- Trump attending the World Cup final is a 90% chance on the prediction markets
- The Kalshi market has over $1 million in volume
- Trump has taken an active part in this year’s FIFA World Cup
How the Trump World Cup attendance prediction market works
The big prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow you to buy and sell event contracts on whether Trump will attend the World Cup final.
For the market to resolve, Trump merely needs to be present at the New York/New Jersey Stadium at any point during the July 19 game.
All shares resolve at $1. Therefore, were you to buy one share at $0.54 that Trump did appear, you’d win $0.46 profit ($1.00-$0.54).
FIFA World Cup final schedule
- Where: New York/New Jersey Stadium
- When: July 19 (8 p.m. ET)
Will Trump attend the World Cup final?
Let’s gauge the markets and see whether Trump will show to watch the Golden Boot superstars or cheer on his favorite neutral picks.
‘Yes’ @ $0.90
A Trump no-show traded as low as $0.76 while the World Cup was in full swing. However, his price jumped following a strong first few games for the MUSNT and America250 celebrations.
A USA appearance in the final would have resolved this ‘Yes’ market long ago. However, the home nation suffered a shock loss to Turkey before a 4-1 defeat by Belgium in the last 16.
Controversially, Trump contacted FIFA to complain about the red card handed to the star U.S. striker, Folarin Balogun, before the Belgium game. Balogun’s red card was rescinded, triggering a wave of condemnation worldwide.
However, Trump is obviously enjoying the World Cup and has been tipped to present it to the winning side on July 19. Not only that, but he will surely — as in the Club World Cup last year — wait around for photo opportunities if the winning team allows.
The $0.90 is an easy ‘Yes’ buy.
‘No’ @ $0.10
For the POTUS not to attend the World Cup final would be a major snub to his close friend, FIFA head honcho, Gianni Infantino.
Unlike online sportsbooks, you can trade this outcome not to happen, effectively betting against the field on a Trump appearance.
Infantino has been wooing Trump for a while, starting with the fabricated FIFA Peace Prize (just before Trump waged war on Iran). FIFA has also accommodated the Americans by introducing hydration breaks at this year’s World Cup.
A confident ‘No’ trade relies on Trump changing his mind (he has a history of this) or on a political emergency keeping him away. A note of caution for traders: a serious injury or even Trump's death would resolve the market to its original share price.
