Will President Trump Be Impeached? Kalshi Contract Lists 'Yes' at 63%
What are the chances of President Donald Trump being impeached?
An increasing likelihood of a Trump impeachment has shaken the prediction markets, with the chance of it happening now above 60%.
Can you jump in on the ‘Yes’ and sell back for an easy profit? We examine whether Iran, the looming midterms, and the lousy economy will all tip the Republicans over the edge.
At a Glance:
- A ‘Yes’ on Trump being impeached is now 63%
- 'Yes' hit a high of 71% this year at prediction market sites
- Trump’s House of Representatives loss over Iran could trigger a trade surge
- Traders have until January 2029 for the market to mature
How the Trump impeachment prediction market works
The prediction markets have been buzzing on the chances of a Donald Trump impeachment before he leaves office in January 2029.
It’s currently a trending market on Kalshi, one of the leaders among prediction market platforms. That means you should expect thousands more contracts to be traded before the market resolves.
Should Donald Trump be impeached during his term, the market would be a 'Yes' and all shares would resolve at $1. So, if you bought ‘Yes’ shares at $0.63, you would win $0.37 profit for every share. The outcome is verified by the Library of Congress.
Donald Trump impeachment frontrunners
Prediction market sites like Kalshi offer a range of options on if, or when, Trump will be impeached.
During his term – ‘Yes’ @ $0.63
The POTUS impeachment prediction market was a coin flip earlier this year. However, that was before he joined Israel’s war against Iran.
Since then, the economy has been hit as hard as the Iranian regime. Plus, the administration seems to have no way out, and high gas prices have hit Americans’ pockets.
To cap it all, disgruntled Republicans who’ve lost their primaries have started voting against the president on key issues.
The latest is the close vote in the House of Representatives after Republicans sided with the Democratic Party to block Trump’s war plans.
The last straw could be the backlash over Trump’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund. The taxpayer dollars would have been paid to political allies, some of whom are Trump supporters and Jan. 6, 2021, rioters. Again, the Republicans blocked the move.
Could the backlash increase support for Trump's impeachment? Prediction market traders think so: there’s definitely a risk-to-reward factor here.
Before March 1, 2027 – ‘Yes’ @ $0.31
There’s little difference in the price between impeachment before Jan. 1, 2028 ($0.58), and any time during Trump’s term ($0.63).
However, the early move may be before March 1, 2027, at $0.31. Yes, it’s on the early side, but things can escalate quickly if the Republican support falls away even more.
Of course, you can certainly rely on the Democrats being ready to impeach over the Iran war following the midterms.
Value picks on Trump's potential impeachment
So, what are the actual chances of the POTUS being impeached, and which way are prediction market traders leaning?
Will Trump be impeached by Jan. 1, 2028? – ‘No’ @ $0.37
Kalshi's 'Yes' contract for a Trump impeachment reached 70% in April amid his disastrous campaign in the Middle East. That’s since slipped back a little to 63%, but there still seems no way out of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Plus, Trump may still have questions to answer over the Jeffrey Epstein files.
That said, the headwinds suggest a ‘No’ at 37% seems the most likely outcome. Remember, you can’t bet on these markets at online sportsbooks in the United States.
There is caution for anyone considering initiating impeachment proceedings against the president. A key figure in the 2021 impeachment trial lost his primary re-election last month. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) claimed his decision to vote for impeachment five years ago “lost me my seat.” Trump endorsed Cassidy’s opponent in the key run-off.
Memory of first Trump impeachment being erased
This week, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) introduced a resolution to scrap the two impeachments Trump faced in his first term.
The resolution, H.Res.1211, would reverse impeachments approved by the House of Representatives. He added that the Democrats broke rules in bringing about the impeachment trials, imposed after the Capitol was stormed following Trump’s 2020 election loss.
Value in backing ‘Yes’ now, selling later
That hasn’t stopped more resolutions from being introduced. In 2025, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) tabled H.Res.939, impeaching Trump for “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
There is certainly value in buying the ‘Yes’ on the prediction markets at $0.63 if more resolutions appear. Trump wouldn’t have to win or lose an impeachment trial. Simply being served with impeachment proceedings triggers a ‘Yes’ on the markets.
That means you can buy 'Yes' at $0.63 before selling later if the price rises. For instance, if the price rose to $0.83, you could sell your shares to lock in a $0.20 profit per share.
Selling the Trump downturn
With the Democrats favored to sweep the House and Senate in the midterm elections, the likelihood of a Trump impeachment continues to rise.
The goal of playing the markets is not just in predicting the outcomes of events. It’s actually about taking a position with the mindset of getting out later, so it’s important to track breaking news. That’s what other traders will be doing: buying and selling their positions depending on the market moves.
There was a massive spike in trades on Kalshi's "Before March 1, 2027," market earlier this year. There has been a gradual selloff as traders cash in their early profits. All markets (Before 2027, Before 2028, etc.) have slightly jumped as Trump starts to lose those Congressional votes.
