Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds and Props: San Diego Takes Finale
You have come to the right place for a Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction ahead of the series finale on Thursday night.
We also break down the betting odds and top player props for this matchup after San Diego took two of the first three games.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Padres as the moneyline favorites at -125 with a total of 9 runs.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total (Over/Under) |
| Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-205) | (+108) | Over 8.5 runs (-124) |
| San Diego Padres -1.5 (+168) | (-126) | Under 8.5 runs (+102) |
How we got here
The Diamondbacks (45-47) have lost three of their last four games, including their last two, and sit in third place in the National League West, 15 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Padres (46-46) have gotten over their eight-game losing streak, winning three of their last four games. They are in second in the NL West, 14 games behind the Dodgers.
On the season, San Diego is 25-22 at home, and Arizona is 18-27 on the road.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres betting analysis
By the numbers
Diamondbacks
- Runs – 20th
- Team ERA – 18th t
Padres
- Runs – 30th
- Team ERA – 14th
Pitching Matchup
Merrill Kelly (6-8, 5.71 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) goes for the D-Backs, and in his last start, gave up two runs in five innings in a 4-3 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. Arizona had lost its previous six starts, and the first five of those were in June, when it had a less-than-stellar ERA of 7.31.
Griffin Canning (1-6, 6.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) gets the nod for the Padres, and he gave up one run in four innings in his last start in a 3-0 loss to the Dodgers. While he has an ERA north of 6.00, he has given up more than two runs in only one of his last four outings.
Ride the momentum
After getting shut out in the opener of this series, the Padres have won the last two games, outscoring the Diamondbacks 14-5.
Bullpen is key
Canning has not pitched more than 4 1/3 innings in any of his last four starts and has lasted past the fifth inning in only one start this season. He will likely not last long but will hand the ball to the Padres' bullpen, which ranks sixth in the Majors in bullpen ERA.
Big bats are not getting it done
Ketel Marte (.266, 17 home runs, 54 RBIs) and Corbin Carroll (.261, 13 home runs, 45 RBIs) rank first and second in home runs and RBIs for the D-Backs, but they have no home runs and have combined for just three RBIs across seven games in July.
Main guys are not getting on base
The Padres rank dead last in the Majors in runs scored, and their key guys are not getting on base. Fernando Tatis Jr. (.284, 5 home runs, 35 RBIs) leads the team in at-bats. He's the only Padre in the top 5 among total at-bats who's hitting over .230.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction: Padres moneyline (-125)
San Diego ranks dead last in baseball in runs scored, but put up 10 runs in the last game. They'll follow it up with another strong outing at the dish in this one. Canning has been the better starter of late, and the San Diego bullpen is better than Arizona’s.
The Padres will have a good all-around game in the finale, win, and take the series.
Padres vs. D-Backs player prop picks
Here are some player prop bets we like at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 hits (-150) – Kelly has given up at least seven hits in all four of his last starts, where he has given up an average of 8.5 hits.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ hits (+168) – Tatis Jr. has three multi-hit games in the last five games.
