MLB Home Run Derby Prediction and Odds: Value on Phillies' Bryce Harper
The 2026 MLB All-Star break is here, and one of the most exciting events is the Home Run Derby, hosted at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Penn.
We break down the odds for all players taking part on Monday, July 13, and offer our Home Run Derby prediction.
It's no surprise that the top online sportsbooks are giving hometown favorite, Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, the best odds to win the Home Run Derby. He finished the first half of the season with the most dingers in the Majors.
2026 Home Run Derby odds
| Player | Odds to Win |
| Kyle Schwarber, PHI | +310 |
| Junior Caminero, TB | +425 |
| Munetaka Murakami, CWS | +475 |
| Jac Caglianone, KC | +650 |
| Jordan Walker, STL | +750 |
| Ben Rice, NYY | +850 |
| Bryce Harper, PHI | +850 |
| Willson Contreras, BOS | +1500 |
Home Run Derby betting analysis
All of the odds for the Home Run Derby featured here are from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+310)
Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs to lead MLB, and he has an advantage since the derby is being held in Philadelphia. He has not competed in the event since 2022, when he bowed out to legend Albert Pujols in the first round.
Schwarber didn't homer in the last four games before the break and has two long balls in 11 games this month.
Junior Caminero, Rays (+425)
Last season, Junior Caminero finished second in the Home Run Derby, and this season he had the fourth-most home runs (28) in the first half. He is the hottest player in the derby, as he went yard 13 times in the last 19 games before the All-Star break.
Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (+475)
Munetaka Murakami is a 26-year-old rookie who will be making his debut in the Home Run Derby. While ranking tied for 19th in the Majors with 20 home runs, he recently came off the injured list after missing six weeks with a hamstring injury.
Jac Caglianone, Royals (+650)
Jac Caglianone has 15 dingers this season, but the young slugger may have the most raw power of anybody in the derby not named Schwarber. He only went yard one time in the last 16 games before the break.
Jordan Walker, Cardinals (+750)
St. Louis Cardinals’ Jordan Walker is a 6-foot-6, 250-pound slugger who had 22 home runs in the first half and also leads the Majors in RBIs. He enters the derby pretty hot with four home runs in the last 13 games.
Ben Rice, Yankees (+850)
Ben Rice has had a breakout season, ranking third in home runs with 29 after finishing last season with 26. He has kept up his power stroke for a Yankees team in the thick of the American League East race — and it's been needed with Aaron Judge sidelined by an injury.
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+850)
Bryce Harper won the 2018 Home Run Derby, beating Schwarber in the finals. He has 20 home runs this season and will be competing on his home field. Also, it is interesting that he picked Los Angeles Dodgers third-base coach Dino Ebel to throw to him, as he was on the mound in 2023 and 2024 when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez won the derbies.
Willson Contreras, Red Sox (+1500)
With 20 home runs, Willson Contreras is having his best power year. The 34-year-old veteran’s season high is 24, set in 2019 with the Chicago Cubs. While he has the longest odds to win the Home Run Derby, he did go yard in two of the last five games before the break.
Home Run Derby prediction: Bryce Harper (+850)
Harper has good value at +850, being at home and facing a batting-practice hurler who has served up two of the last three derby winners.
