Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Props: Boston Will Continue Streak
In an AL series opener between two sub-.500 teams that have played well as of late, the Boston Red Sox play host to the Minnesota Twins.
bet365 Sportsbook has the hometown Red Sox as the favorites at -150 with a total of 7.5 runs.
Twins vs. Red Sox odds
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| Twins (+125) | Over 7.5 runs (-110) | Twins +1.5 runs (-170) |
| Red Sox (-150) | Under 7.5 runs (-110) | Red Sox -1.5 runs (+145) |
Standings overview
The Twins (23-27) are coming off a four-game series against the Houston Astros, where they won three. They are 6-4 in their last 10 games and sit in third place in the AL Central, six games out of first.
The Red Sox (22-27) are coming off a road sweep in their last series, taking three games from the Kansas City Royals. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and are in fourth place in the AL East, 11.5 games out of first place.
On the season, Boston is 8-14 at home, and Minnesota is 8-13 on the road.
Last game
In their last game, Minnesota beat Houston 4-1, where Ryan Kreidler had a 3-run home run, and Victor Caratini added a solo shot.
The Red Sox finished the sweep of the Royals in their last game with a 4-3 win, and for the series, they outscored KC 14-5.
Twins vs. Red Sox analysis: by the numbers
Twins
- Runs – 9th
- Team batting average – 18th
- Team ERA – 18th
- Bullpen ERA – 28th
Red Sox
- Runs – 29th
- Team batting average – 15th
- Team ERA – 9th
- Bullpen ERA – 2nd
Pitching Matchup
Connor Prielipp (1-2, 2.88 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) takes the mound for the Twins and was pretty good in his last start, giving up two runs on three hits in six innings, but got little run support in a 2-1 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Minnesota has lost his last three starts, in which he gave up eight runs across 16 innings.
Payton Tolle (2-2, 2.05 ERA, 0.78 WHIP) gets the nod for the Red Sox and, in his last start, gave up two runs on four hits in eight innings in a 3-2 win over the Atlanta Braves. Boston has won two of his last three starts, and in his five starts on the season, he has not given up more than three runs.
Pitchers getting it done for both sides
Both teams have been solid on the mound as of late. The Red Sox have given up more than three runs only once over their last nine games, and the Twins have not given up more than four runs in any of their last seven games.
Sox struggling at home
The Red Sox are five games under .500, but are one game over .500 on the road, while they are only 8-13 at home.
It helps to score
Offensively, the Red Sox have relied heavily on pitching, as their lineup continues to struggle. They rank second-to-last in the Majors in runs scored.
Wilyer Abreu (.292, 6 home runs, 19 RBIs) leads the team in batting average, but three of the players with the top six at-bats are not hitting over .206.
Willson Contreras (.269, 10 home runs, 30 RBIs) leads the club in dingers and runs batted in. He has two long balls and seven RBIs over the last five games.
Get on base for Buxton
Minnesota’s Byron Buxton (.260, 15 home runs, 23 RBIs) is tied for fifth in home runs, but only tied for 78th in runs driven in. Players in front of him are not getting on base. Over his last five games, he has two home runs — both solo shots.
Josh Bell (.231, 5 home runs, 29 RBIs) leads the Twins in runs driven in and has five over the last four games.
Ryan Jeffers (.295, 7 home runs, 26 RBIs) ranks second on the club in RBIs but is out 6-8 weeks with a wrist injury.
PlayersBest prediction: Red Sox ML (-150)
While the Red Sox have not played well at home this season, they will get a win at Fenway in this series opener.
In four of five starts, Prielipp has not lasted past the fifth inning, and we don't expect him to go deep here. That is key, as he will be handing the ball to the Twins’ bullpen, which ranks third last in bullpen ERA.
In a lower-scoring game, Boston will get the W for their fourth win in a row.
Twins vs. Red Sox player prop picks
Here are some player prop bets we like at FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Payton Tolle Under 5.5 strikeouts (-118) – He only has seven strikeouts in his last two starts, and the Twins are averaging 5.67 Ks over the last three games.
- Connor Prielipp Over 5.5 strikeouts (-102) – Good value here, as he has 14 strikeouts in the last two games, and even in sweeping their last series, the Red Sox struck out 27 times in the three games.
- Willson Contreras to hit a HR (+340) – These are fairly strong odds because Contreras has shown recent power, hitting two home runs in the last five games. Prielipp, the opposing pitcher, has allowed four home runs in his last three starts, suggesting another long-ball opportunity for Contreras.
