Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 Prediction, Odds and Props: Series is Squared Up

Jason Green

06/24/2026

The Western Conference finals are tied 2-2, and while the San Antonio Spurs won Game 4, the Oklahoma City Thunder reclaimed home-court advantage after taking Games 2 and 3. 

For Game 5, bet365 Sportsbook lists the Thunder as 5.5-point favorites, with the total set at 216.5. 

Check out our Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 prediction, odds analysis, and favorite player props before joining the action.

Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 odds 

Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 betting analysis 

San Antonio tied the series with a 103-82 win in Game 4, which was the lowest scoring output of the season for the Thunder. The Spurs held OKC to 33% shooting, and Victor Wembanyama led the way with 33 points, while De'Aaron Fox posted a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds. 

Injury concerns for Thunder 

The Thunder come into Game 5 with Jalen Williams (17.8 ppg) listed as a game-time decision and Ajay Mitchell (15.1 ppg) out. 

Williams has only played in four playoff games and missed the last two contests. Mitchell took his place when he was out and played well. These guys play the same position, so if Williams can't go, somebody else will have to step up on both sides of the floor. 

Ice cold 

Not only did the Thunder shoot a paltry 33% from the floor in Game 4, but they only shot 18% (6-for-33) from behind the 3-point arc. 

Only three starters scored in double figures in the loss, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren only combined for 29 points on 9-of-24 shooting. 

Keep Wemby in check 

Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have the unenviable task of guarding Wemby, as while stopping him will not happen, they need to keep him from going big. In the two San Antonio wins in this series, he has tallied 33 and 41 points, while in the two losses, he has scored 26 and 21. 

Caruso has to bounce back 

Alex Caruso (10.1 ppg) went scoreless on only one shot, dealing with foul trouble in Game 4. In the first three games, he averaged 21 ppg, and his offense will be needed in Game 5. That will be especially true if Williams cannot go. 

Thunder need more from the bench 

In Game 3, the Thunder bench scored 76 points before totaling just 30 in the following game. Caruso did nothing in Game 4, and Jared McCain scored four points on 1-of-10 shooting after posting a combined 36 points over the previous two games. 

Backcourt defense is key 

While Wemby is the main threat, the OKC defense needs to play solid perimeter defense, facing the guards of Stephon Castle (19.2 ppg), Devin Vassell (13.7 ppg), Dylan Harper (13.3 ppg), and a healthy De'Aaron Fox (18 ppg), who missed the first two games of the series. 

Castle has only totaled 27 points in the last two games after totaling 42 in the first two games. 

The best sports betting sites have the Thunder (+110) with the best odds to win the NBA title, followed by the Eastern Conference champion Knicks (+210) and the Spurs (+270).

PlayersBest pick: Thunder -5.5 

The Thunder laid an egg in Game 4's win, but still have home-court advantage. While they lost badly, it was because of poor shooting; their defense was pretty good, holding the Spurs to just 39% from the field. 

The Thunder will flip the script back at home, shoot the rock much better than the last game, and get the win and cover, taking a 3-2 series lead. 

Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 player prop picks 

Here are some player prop bets we like at BetMGM Sportsbook:  

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 points in the 1st quarter (-105) – The Thunder will come out firing from the tip-off, and Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the charge, scoring at least 7 points in the first quarter.
• De'Aaron Fox Over 3.5 rebounds (-140) – Really O/U 3.5 boards? He is back and healthy, and in the two games he has played in this series, he has totaled 17 rebounds.
• Wemby to score 1st field goal (+550) – Great value here for the leading scorer for the Spurs, who have won the tip-off in all four games.