The best political prediction markets allow you to trade predictions on the outcomes of future political events, including elections, congressional decisions, and more. This allows you to earn profits for your correct predictions, but you can also lose funds if you're incorrect.
This guide covers everything you need to know about politics prediction markets. It includes where you can trade political prediction contracts, the risks associated, tips to help you get started, and more.
We'll also go over the top prediction market apps for U.S. traders and the rating system we use to evaluate them.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
This app provided consistent access to trading markets on the world’s biggest events and, importantly for any new users, the platform was deeply beginner-friendly.
🙂 Positive A standout compliment
Comprehensive customer support options were available, including live chat, which meant it was easy to get in touch with the right person.
🙂 Positive Widely praised
Enjoyed taking advantage of the holding rewards system, as this made it easier to trade on and benefit from positions that appeared particularly promising.
🙂 Positive A consistent highlight
The liquidity rewards program stood out as a creative way to connect users with the health of the market, and even offered some notable incentives.
The best political prediction markets in July 2026
Let’s get straight to the point and look at our experts’ reviews of the five best sites for tech trading and politics prediction markets:
📈 Politics prediction market site
🏆 Best for
Kalshi
Trustworthiness and limit orders
Polymarket
Diverse market selection and high liquidity
Crypto.com
Low trading fees and $10 event contracts
Robinhood
US elections markets and introductory guides
Underdog Predict
The easiest platform to use
Kalshi: The oldest and best politics trading prediction market
Kalshi was the first prediction market to launch in the U.S., and it remains one of the most popular to this day. It’s CFTC-regulated and is available to U.S. traders aged 18+. However, there are outright or partial restrictions in Arizona, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada, and Ohio.
It offers a diverse selection of U.S. and overseas political markets with binary Yes/No event contracts and multiple-choice. There are also some novelty politics markets with surprisingly high liquidity. For example, the highest-trading volume market at the time of writing is “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?”
There’s also a separate 'Elections' category that covers everything from the next U.S. presidential election to local elections, and overseas events. The data tracking for most markets comes in the form of an interactive line graph that you can adjust the time scale and filter to show only your preferred predictions.
You can purchase event contracts in shares or USD, and the limit order option lets you set a time limit and a maximum execution price. The slight downside is that the fee structure is based on expected profits, which can be a bit complex.
Polymarket: The biggest U.S. and geopolitical prediction market selection
Polymarket was initially banned for U.S. traders, but has now launched a U.S.-specific app that’s regulated by the CFTC and accepts traders aged 18+. However, the landscape is moving quickly, so there may be temporary bans or restrictions in your state. We recommend that you check regularly for updates.
When it comes to U.S. political markets, our review of Polymarket found this platform to be unrivaled, with over 130 markets related to U.S. elections alone. If you’re looking for novelty markets, the “Trump Daily" category contains predictions like “Will Trump dance today?” or “Will Trump insult someone today?”
Moving away from the U.S., there’s a dedicated tab for geopolitical prediction markets. Here, you can find everything from overseas elections to multiple-choice markets like “Who will be the next global leader out of power?” If you’re looking for binary markets, there are Yes/No questions like "Will Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by a certain date?”
Given how many political markets there are, liquidity is surprisingly high across the board thanks to Polymarket's broad user base. The most popular markets tend to have an eight-figure trading volume in USD, and even the niche options always tend to have at least five figures. If there’s a Polymarket referral code available right now, it will be posted in the banners on this page.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
Crypto.com: Lowest political trading prices and fees
Crypto.com offers prediction markets on its main website and OG app, through Derivatives North America (CDNA), which is CFTC-regulated. You can trade political prediction markets here from anywhere in the U.S. if you're aged 18+, except in Arizona and New York. Sports predictions are banned for traders in Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois, but political markets are permitted.
The selection of political prediction markets on this platform is fairly small, covering just a handful of long-term U.S. political events, such as Senate election winners. On the upside, liquidity is high, and the interface is very easy to follow and beginner-friendly.
The biggest advantage of this site is the low trading fees. You pay a $0.02 flat fee when you buy contracts, which is waived if you hold the contract until the market is resolved, win or lose.
It’s also the only prediction market site to offer $10 politics event contracts as well as the standard $1.00 contracts. These have a $0.20 flat fee, which is reduced to just $0.10 if you hold until the end and have a correct prediction. If you hold and lose, there are no trading fees.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Robinhood: Best for US Election predictions
Robinhood now offers prediction markets to eligible traders via its standard investment app. Its prediction markets are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, which is CFTC-regulated and open to U.S. traders aged 18+. However, as with Polymarket, we advise checking for permanent or temporary bans/restrictions in your state.
This app essentially offers the perfect balance between Polymarket and Crypto.com. That is to say, it has low fees and a beginner-friendly interface that can match Crypto.com. Meanwhile, its reasonably diverse market selection is closer to Polymarket's massive range than Crypto.com’s very limited selection.
What we liked is that there's a dedicated tab for 'U.S. Elections'. This is available year-round, as it covers everything from U.S. Presidential elections to Premiers, State, Congress, and Local elections. When you click the main 'Politics' tab, there’s an immediate dropdown menu with subcategories including Trade, Fiscal, Policy, and International.
If you’re completely new to politics prediction trading, you just need to click on the 'i' icon at the top of the page. This gives you a very simple, step-by-step guide to event contracts and how to buy them. Learn more in our Robinhood review.
Underdog Predict: The most user-friendly platform
Underdog Predict is a platform that’s available in the main Underdog app to eligible U.S. users. As a CFTC-regulated exchange, it accepts U.S. traders aged 18+ in most U.S. states.
This platform is on the Crypto.com end of the scale when it comes to politics prediction contracts, as it’s a much more sports-focused brand. Still, during our Underdog Predict Review, we found decent liquidity in markets for Senate races and most U.S. elections. What sets this app apart from others is that it looks the best and is by far the most user-friendly for casual and novice traders.
That said, it lacks the data-tracking tools and market diversity that experienced political traders are likely looking for. The fees are always between $0.02 and $0.10 per contract, which isn’t the cheapest but is at least easier to calculate and follow than Kalshi’s complex, expected-profit-based system.
Trading derivatives involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. For more information, visit: nadex.com/rules and underdogfantasy.com/rules. For Crypto.com Predictions, the term "pick" refers to a product traded on CDNA.
How to sign up at political prediction market sites
The sign-up process differs slightly across the five politics prediction market sites we’ve covered above. However, the basic steps are the same, and they all have the same KYC requirements.
This means that, at the very least, you must provide your full legal name, date of birth, U.S. residential address, and Social Security Number (SSN). To verify your account, you must upload a valid photo ID, proof of address, and possibly other documents, including proof of funds or U.S. bank account ownership.
To give you an idea of what to expect, we’ve put together this handy step-by-step guide:
1
Visit site: Follow the relevant link or banner on this page to the politics prediction market site
2
Start registration process: Click the 'Sign Up' button to begin
3
Sign up: Enter your email address or register via Apple ID, Google, or any of the available options
4
Create password: Create a secure password and security questions (if required for 2FA setup)
5
Provide information: Provide your full name, date of birth (must be over 18), and residential address (check for state bans/restrictions beforehand)
6
Complete KYC: Type in the final four digits of your SSN, then upload your photo ID, a selfie, and any other required documents
7
Submit: Submit the form and wait for your account to be verified (usually takes less than 24 hours)
8
Deposit funds: Fund your account once you’ve been verified
9
Browse markets: Take a look through the selection of political event contracts and prediction markets
10
Trade event contracts: Execute your first political event contract purchase, then watch the event unfold
Top categories at politics prediction market sites
Politics is quite a broad category at the best prediction markets, and you'll find a lot of subcategories within it, including:
U.S., state, and local elections are among the most popular prediction markets for traders, and tend to have the highest liquidity.
Some sites have a U.S. category that covers everything from elections to White House and Federal decisions.
Moving away from the U.S., you can trade contracts on foreign elections and big geopolitical decisions like the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
This subcategory covers all things policy-related, including House Bills being passed into law.
Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi have novelty prediction markets, often related to funny things that a major political figure might say in their next public speech.
How we rate political prediction market sites
One of the reasons we’re among the most trusted reviewers of prediction markets is that we combine our expert ratings with our wider community scores. This gives you a broader perspective on each platform, as we include the opinions of real traders alongside those from other trusted third-party platforms, such as Trustpilot.
Moreover, our overall scores are calculated based on the ratings we give each site according to the following categories:
Usability: First and foremost, we test the brands’ websites and apps and rate their usability. Ideally, we’re looking for user-friendly apps that traders of all experience levels can navigate. At the same time, we also want to see features to aid experienced traders.
Payments: How you fund your account is vitally important, so we always assess the diversity of deposit and withdrawal methods. On top of that, we assess processing times and ensure there are no hidden deposit, withdrawal, or trading fees that might catch you off guard.
Support: Political trading and prediction markets are very risky, and there’s a steep learning curve that can lead to a variety of hurdles. With that in mind, there must be good support that you can access 24/7. At the very least, the site should have a help center and live chat. And support email addresses.
Legal status: To legally offer political prediction market trading in the U.S., sites and apps must be regulated as financial exchanges by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Rewards: Some prediction markets offer loyalty programs to reward high-volume traders. Meanwhile, others have incentives to encourage traders to make markets or trade on low-liquidity markets to increase volume.
Politics markets: In this context, we’re specifically looking at political trading options, so we examine how diverse the market selection is and what types of event contracts are available. As we covered earlier, we like to see a good mix of U.S. and international political events and predictions.
Tips to help you trade on politics prediction markets
As we did for culture trading, here are our top five expert tips for trading on your political predictions:
Above all else, only trade on political predictions for events that you follow and understand. For instance, if you don’t follow politics beyond the U.S. and your state’s elections, then maybe avoid trading on the next president of Cameroon.
The market will usually overreact instantly to a big political news event, but that doesn't mean that you should. Stay calm, wait for the dust to settle, and decide what you really think before buying or selling event contracts for a prediction.
Never trade with a total amount that is more than you can afford to lose without financial worry. Additionally, set aside small portions of your total bankroll for each trade.
Remember that you’re trading on the prediction that you think will happen and potentially win you money, not what you want to happen. If you can’t set your personal politics aside, avoid trading predictions on political events that you’re emotionally invested in.
Make sure to look at the movement of correlated markets to the one you're looking at. For example, if Trump’s approval rating is tanking, the probability of a Republican candidate winning a State Governor election may also be negatively affected.
Legality of political prediction market apps
If you're worried about the legal status of prediction market sites in the U.S., there's no need to be. At the time of writing, prediction markets are legal and regulated at the federal level by the CFTC.
All of the prediction trading sites featured on the banners around this page are safe and clear to operate in the U.S. Should that change in the future, we'll update this guide accordingly.
Pros and cons of political prediction markets
Pros
Trade event contracts on a variety of political events
U.S. and international politics markets
Legal for traders 18+ in most of the U.S.
Cons
Politics prediction trading is risky
Final thoughts on politics prediction markets
In summary, political prediction markets involve buying and selling event contracts for future political events, including elections, country decisions, peace deals, and more. You can fund them on most prediction market trading sites in the U.S., but the best options for liquidity and market diversity are Kalshi and Polymarket.
If you’re looking for a smaller selection, but on a simpler platform with lower trading fees, Crypto.com, Underdog Predict, and Robinhood are good options. Before you register on a trading platform via the banners on this page, take time to consider the risks involved with trading on political prediction markets. And never trade predictions using funds you can’t afford to lose.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
Political prediction markets offer event contracts tied to the outcomes of future events, such as elections. If you buy and hold these event contracts until the political event has concluded, you can make a profit if your prediction was correct. On the other hand, there’s a high risk of being incorrect and suffering a loss.
The event contract prices in political prediction markets are always set between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the real-time probability of the outcome. For example, if the Republicans have a 40% chance of winning the next U.S. Presidential Election, the “Yes” contracts on that prediction market would roughly cost $0.40 each.
If you hold contracts tethered to the correct outcome of a political event, they will close at $1, giving you a profit. If you hold the incorrect ones, they will close at $0, resulting in a loss.
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