Brighton vs Newcastle Premier League Preview | 20.03.2021

Premier League Betting Tips · 20.03.2021 - 20:00 · The Amex

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For this week’s Premier League betting tips, we turn our attentions to the bottom of the table. The relegation tussle is always one of the most interesting footballing subplots in the galaxy and this season has been no different. On Saturday, Brighton and Newcastle meet on the south coast knowing that the wrong result could plunge them into deeper trouble.

Recent form analysis

As the two sides are separated by just one point going into the contest, you could be struggling to make your prediction. This is where PlayersBest comes in. Our team of super-galactic football experts use extensive analysis to provide the best Premier League betting tips in the UK. Here is how they see this weekend’s big fixture turning out.

Brighton in a False Position

If Brighton could finish, they would not be in a relegation scrap. xG is used to measure how many goals a team would expect to score in a game or a season. This campaign, the Seagulls have registered an xG of 39.5 and only scored 28 goals. This means they are underperforming their xG more than any other Premier League team. Fortunately, recent games suggest that this trend may finally be shifting. In a win over Southampton last time out, Brighton found the back of the net twice. Leandro Trossard scored in that game and Graham Potter will hope the forward can repeat the trick on Saturday.

Newcastle Lacking Key Players

A club as big as Newcastle should not be in a Premier League relegation battle. Yet, here we are. Things do not look good for the Magpies. Key forwards Miguel Almiron, Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson are all out injured, with the former two not expected to be back until April. This leaves Steve Bruce woefully short of options up front. Newcastle will need expensive flop Joelinton to finally come good against Brighton, while big things will also be required from Dwight Gayle and Ryan Fraser. They also need to tighten up the back, having only registered five clean sheets all season.

Head to Head

As Brighton have spent the majority of their history in the lower leagues, these two sides have not met too many times previously. There have been 27 fixtures in total with neither team particularly dominating. Newcastle have won nine, including the very first game back in 1930, while Brighton have taken 11. Seven have ended all square. In bad news for neutrals, recent matches between the pair have not been the most exciting. Since the pair’s promotion to the Premier League in 2017, there have been three 0-0s, while just one game has seen more than two goals.

Brighton & < 2.5 Goals
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Statistical highlights

If you want to become one of the best football tipsters in the universe, you must learn how to use statistics to aid you betting. Goals, clean sheets and possession are all important. Looking at the formbook is also useful. Here are three stats that stood out to us prior to Saturday’s game.

Brighton vs. Newcastle
20 / 09 / 2020
St James’ Park | Newcastle 0 vs Brighton 3 | Premier League
20 / 07 / 2020
The Amex | Brighton 0 vs Newcastle 0 | Premier League
21 / 09 / 2019
St James’ Park | Newcastle 0 vs Brighton 0 | Premier League
27 / 04 / 2019
The Amex | Brighton 1 vs Newcastle 1 | Premier League
20 / 10 / 2018
St James’ Park | Newcastle 0 vs Brighton 1 | Premier League
Highlight #1
Newcastle have never beaten Brighton in the Premier League
Highlight #2
Only West Brom have averaged less possession per game than Newcastle in the Premier League this season
Highlight #3
Brighton goalkeepers have averaged the second lowest save percentage in the Premier League this season

Our Betting Tip for Today

We are backing Brighton to get the job done in a game that will see less than 2.5 goals.

Brighton to Edge Low Scoring Game

With confidence low for both teams, you should not be expecting fireworks on Saturday. We are predicting a somewhat nervy affair which Brighton should edge.

Although they have not always been clinical in front of goal this season, they should be full of confidence following their win over Southampton. Newcastle, meanwhile, are in disarray thanks to a long list of injuries which has decimated their frontline.

A Brighton win is not the only thing you should consider putting on your betting slip, though. We also recommend betting on their being under 2.5 goals. Recent history tells us that this fixture has rarely treated us to goals and we do not expect this to change on Saturday.

The best price we could find for this tip comes from Novibet, who are offering a generous 9/4.

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